Superbowl Statistics and
Learning from the Past
Learning from the Past
March 4, 2015
Some sports pundits claim that the Superbowl was sullied by mediocrity because it ended with a call by the Seahawk’s coach that they disparaged as the worst in Superbowl history. They consider the option to pass the ball as a risky call compared to the “safer” call to have Marshawn Lynch, their key running back run. To bolster their claim these pundits have introduced statistics on the short yardage success of running versus passing. Many cite multi-year National Football League statistics that runs from the one yard out scored almost 58 percent of the time. At first blush these statistics based on NFL data seemed to confirm the Seahawk’s coaching mediocrity. Other pundits, however, seeking to prove the Seahawks coach made a reasonable call have introduced additional statistics, including that Marshawn Lynch had only a 20 percent short yardage success rate.
The above table aggregates some of the statistics used by various pundits to support their claims. The broader the scope of the statistics (multiple seasons and teams versus a single team in one season), the more the run appears superior to the pass. However, the broader scope, the less the unique characteristics of particular teams are weighted. Considering these two teams in the 2014 season, the pass was clearly the play to go with. Moreover, because the Seahawks had to call one time out, an incomplete pass play to help set up a run seems like good play calling. In any event, there is no support for the claim that play calling by the Seahawk coaches was mediocre.
Alternatively, it does seem that the Superbowl was sullied by expediency. In deflating their footballs below National Football League rules in the playoff game against the Ravens, the Patriots demonstrated their willingness to cheat to advance to the Superbowl (see Too Inflated to Fail on this website). More importantly, in failing to resolve this issue before the game, when meaningful sanctions might have been applied against the Patriots, the NFL demonstrated their willingness to put success above fairness.
Alternatively, it does seem that the Superbowl was sullied by expediency. In deflating their footballs below National Football League rules in the playoff game against the Ravens, the Patriots demonstrated their willingness to cheat to advance to the Superbowl (see Too Inflated to Fail on this website). More importantly, in failing to resolve this issue before the game, when meaningful sanctions might have been applied against the Patriots, the NFL demonstrated their willingness to put success above fairness.