SOURCE Iowa Poll of 455 likely 2020 Democratic caucusgoers, Dec. 10-13. Margin of error: plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
Pollsters and pundits are beginning to think about the 2020 election. Their advice, bolstered by the first Iowa poll showing Biden leading all other Democrats, is to opine that he has the best chance to pick up the middle of the road and recent Republican voters. Moreover, they argue that his wealth of experience would allow him to stand up to Trump in debates.
Everything pundits say about Biden may be true. But none of what they say is based on reasonable knowledge. The early polls show one thing: name recognition. After eight years as Vice-President, it is reassuring, but not very informative to see that Iowa voters recognize Joe Biden’s name. It may be that Biden could stand up to Trump in a debate, although I don’t remember him doing that well against Hillary and Barack in 2008. In 2012, he did clean Paul Ryan’s clock, but Paul Ryan is not much of a debater or anything else. By the way, Trump may not be the candidate.
At this time, Democrats should realize two things about winning elections. First, when the base turns out, Democrats win. For the Democratic base to turn out, it needs to be enthusiastic and energized. Second, a large and important part of the Democratic base is comprised of people of color. They need to be energized as well as the rest of the base.
The leaked draft of the Senate report on the Russian use of social media makes that point. The Russians targeted black voters with the intent of getting them to stay home or vote for third party candidates. They were successful, and Trump won. It is a pipe dream to believe that Democrats can bring out enough white voters in the Midwest or anyplace else to make up for poor black turnout.
The answer to the problem of the puny support for Democrats among white male voters in 2016 is populism. Trump promised health care, good jobs, high wages, and sunshine filled days. He was lying. But too few voters in some key states realized that then. Trump was lying. But a candidate who shows those voters in the Midwest how he or she will achieve these things will be welcomed.
Everything pundits say about Biden may be true. But none of what they say is based on reasonable knowledge. The early polls show one thing: name recognition. After eight years as Vice-President, it is reassuring, but not very informative to see that Iowa voters recognize Joe Biden’s name. It may be that Biden could stand up to Trump in a debate, although I don’t remember him doing that well against Hillary and Barack in 2008. In 2012, he did clean Paul Ryan’s clock, but Paul Ryan is not much of a debater or anything else. By the way, Trump may not be the candidate.
At this time, Democrats should realize two things about winning elections. First, when the base turns out, Democrats win. For the Democratic base to turn out, it needs to be enthusiastic and energized. Second, a large and important part of the Democratic base is comprised of people of color. They need to be energized as well as the rest of the base.
The leaked draft of the Senate report on the Russian use of social media makes that point. The Russians targeted black voters with the intent of getting them to stay home or vote for third party candidates. They were successful, and Trump won. It is a pipe dream to believe that Democrats can bring out enough white voters in the Midwest or anyplace else to make up for poor black turnout.
The answer to the problem of the puny support for Democrats among white male voters in 2016 is populism. Trump promised health care, good jobs, high wages, and sunshine filled days. He was lying. But too few voters in some key states realized that then. Trump was lying. But a candidate who shows those voters in the Midwest how he or she will achieve these things will be welcomed.
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