All of us should expect to become infected with coronavirus. There are only two ways to avoid this disease. First, if scientists eventually develop an effective vaccine against coronavirus to which we have access, it could provide us with immunity. U.S. scientists estimate that the soonest they can develop a vaccine is a year. Second, if none of the people with whom we come into contact transmit the disease to us. This will happen if they are not yet infected, if they have recovered and are immune, or if they have been vaccinated. We can also escape infection through shear luck if we are exposed, but transmission just does not happen.
Most of us who contract the disease and are young and healthy will recover from coronavirus, perhaps with some over-the-counter symptom relief. Others of us may not be as fortunate as the young and healthy. We may have preexisting medical conditions, or be over the age of 65, or suffer from both preexisting conditions and are over the age of 65. If we have these risks and become infected withcoronavirus, we are more likely to die than those who are young and healthy. Nonetheless, a few of us who are young and healthy will also, quite mysteriously, do poorly or die.
Even if we are old and have health problems, we may recover from severe disease if we have access to the right medical treatment. As more and more people become ill from the coronavirus, the resources to treat them will become depleted. Hospitals may not be able to provide access to those sick with coronavirus because of shortages in intensive care units, ventilators, medical personnel, and personal protective equipment. In turn, hospitals may not be able to provide medical services for all of those suffering from heart attacks, strokes, overdoses, and other medical emergencies.
The authorities are calling for us to practice social distancing, limiting the number of people with whom we are in contact, to avoid this shortage of medical resources. Authorities are closing schools, limiting gatherings of over ten people, and closing nonessential businesses to enforce social distancing. But social distance maynot protect us from coronavirus. It will increase the time it takes for us to contract coronavirus. If the time it takes for all of us to become ill is increased, then perhaps our medical resources will not be swamped.
Most of us who contract the disease and are young and healthy will recover from coronavirus, perhaps with some over-the-counter symptom relief. Others of us may not be as fortunate as the young and healthy. We may have preexisting medical conditions, or be over the age of 65, or suffer from both preexisting conditions and are over the age of 65. If we have these risks and become infected withcoronavirus, we are more likely to die than those who are young and healthy. Nonetheless, a few of us who are young and healthy will also, quite mysteriously, do poorly or die.
Even if we are old and have health problems, we may recover from severe disease if we have access to the right medical treatment. As more and more people become ill from the coronavirus, the resources to treat them will become depleted. Hospitals may not be able to provide access to those sick with coronavirus because of shortages in intensive care units, ventilators, medical personnel, and personal protective equipment. In turn, hospitals may not be able to provide medical services for all of those suffering from heart attacks, strokes, overdoses, and other medical emergencies.
The authorities are calling for us to practice social distancing, limiting the number of people with whom we are in contact, to avoid this shortage of medical resources. Authorities are closing schools, limiting gatherings of over ten people, and closing nonessential businesses to enforce social distancing. But social distance maynot protect us from coronavirus. It will increase the time it takes for us to contract coronavirus. If the time it takes for all of us to become ill is increased, then perhaps our medical resources will not be swamped.
Flattening the curve refers to the process of prolonging the onset of thecoronavirus for as many people as possible so that health services will not be swamped. It is important to note that the flattening curve slows the rate of transmission. That is, it slows the number who have the disease at a given point in time; it does not affect the total number of people who contractcoronavirus. Flattening the curve is essential for helping to ensure that medical resources are not swamped. If the curve is not flattened, then access to medical care may have to be rationed or care quality compromised for all. (In Fig. 1, the number of people seeking help when it must be rationed is represented by C.)
Physicians need to test symptomatic patients to make a diagnosis, institute isolation, and report to public health for focused responses. Testing for the presence of coronavirus, like social distancing, is necessary but has been woefully inadequate. Testing, however, will not prevent us from contracting coronavirus. And adequate testing would help identify those who have the disease but are asymptomatic. Those who have coronavirus must be isolated in order to avoid its spread. Testing can also help identify those who are immune because they have been infected and recovered.
The prediction for the future is ominous. Because early testing was not done, it looks like more and more of us will be in the C part of the curve. And although testing has increased, we will never be able to catch the lost time and opportunity. At some point we should determine why we were so disadvantaged.
Physicians need to test symptomatic patients to make a diagnosis, institute isolation, and report to public health for focused responses. Testing for the presence of coronavirus, like social distancing, is necessary but has been woefully inadequate. Testing, however, will not prevent us from contracting coronavirus. And adequate testing would help identify those who have the disease but are asymptomatic. Those who have coronavirus must be isolated in order to avoid its spread. Testing can also help identify those who are immune because they have been infected and recovered.
The prediction for the future is ominous. Because early testing was not done, it looks like more and more of us will be in the C part of the curve. And although testing has increased, we will never be able to catch the lost time and opportunity. At some point we should determine why we were so disadvantaged.
