 | The Democratic nominee for President will have a difficult time defeating Donald Trump. Incumbent Presidents have several advantages seeking re-election, especially when the economy is strong. Voters almost always weigh their economic interests more than candidates’ policy positions. Nonetheless, voters do have general impressions of candidates and their parties. Trump cultivated an aura of a successful businessman, joined a party reputed to be patriotic, and inherited a good economy. Trump is helped because voters’ economic interests, candidate impressions, and party image are aligned. |
Also, the Democrats may not be able to settle on their nominee until the summer. If none of the candidates garner a majority of the delegates before the summer, then the nominee may be chosen in July at the convention. Until Democrats select their nominee, Trump can attack Democrats without fear of focused retaliation from the nominee. And, except for the two billionaire contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, Trump, as the Republican nominee, is advantaged in his ability to raise money.
Besides these structural advantages incumbent Presidents enjoy, the four leading Democrats have deficiencies, like all candidates. Joe Biden is gaff-prone and does not seem to understand the polarization between Republicans and Democrats fully. His support is strong among moderates and older blacks but soft among the young and progressives.
Besides these structural advantages incumbent Presidents enjoy, the four leading Democrats have deficiencies, like all candidates. Joe Biden is gaff-prone and does not seem to understand the polarization between Republicans and Democrats fully. His support is strong among moderates and older blacks but soft among the young and progressives.