 | The Democratic nominee for President will have a difficult time defeating Donald Trump. Incumbent Presidents have several advantages seeking re-election, especially when the economy is strong. Voters almost always weigh their economic interests more than candidates’ policy positions. Nonetheless, voters do have general impressions of candidates and their parties. Trump cultivated an aura of a successful businessman, joined a party reputed to be patriotic, and inherited a good economy. Trump is helped because voters’ economic interests, candidate impressions, and party image are aligned. |
Also, the Democrats may not be able to settle on their nominee until the summer. If none of the candidates garner a majority of the delegates before the summer, then the nominee may be chosen in July at the convention. Until Democrats select their nominee, Trump can attack Democrats without fear of focused retaliation from the nominee. And, except for the two billionaire contenders, Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, Trump, as the Republican nominee, is advantaged in his ability to raise money.
Besides these structural advantages incumbent Presidents enjoy, the four leading Democrats have deficiencies, like all candidates. Joe Biden is gaff-prone and does not seem to understand the polarization between Republicans and Democrats fully. His support is strong among moderates and older blacks but soft among the young and progressives.
Besides these structural advantages incumbent Presidents enjoy, the four leading Democrats have deficiencies, like all candidates. Joe Biden is gaff-prone and does not seem to understand the polarization between Republicans and Democrats fully. His support is strong among moderates and older blacks but soft among the young and progressives.
Bernie Sanders has strong support among the young, Latinos, and working-class whites. However, his previous left-wing positions are a Republican opposition researcher’s dream. Warren’s support somewhat overlaps with Sander’s support. But she is secure with educated, middle-class suburban whites. Her support among blacks is shallow but seems to be growing among Latinos.
Pete Buttigieg also has support among educated, middle-class suburban whites and little support among blacks. He is the youngest candidate and has made surprising gains among moderate voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. In addition to these front runners, three other candidates deserve mention. Amy Klobuchar has started making some gains in Iowa but still trails the leading four. She may find her progress halted by her duties as a juror in the upcoming Trump impeachment trial.
Two billionaires, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg don’t have much of a following at this point. But they have so much money they can stay in the race. And with most Democratic voters focused on beating Trump, both candidates may prove attractive because they can outspend Trump. Nonetheless, the Democrats who were able to unite the party and win the Presidency--Carter, Clinton, Obama--were exciting, new to national politics, young.
In addition to the Democratic candidates’ deficiencies, their messages seem to miss the concerns that affected voters in the 2016 election. First, race played a role in Trump’s election. Trump’s candidacy energized some whites, while some blacks were disheartened. Second, while all the Democratic candidates decry rising inequality, they have not settled on the diagnoses about its causes. Third, although all the Democratic candidates lament Trump’s trampling on Constitutional democracy, they do not tell voters what the advantages of democracy are for them. And, fourth, the Democratic candidates have not presented identities that embody and support the messages that are underpinning their candidacy.
Race
Most observers realize that the failure to rouse black voters in 2016 contributed to the Democratic loss. Similarly, Trump obtained unexpected support from some white voters because he espoused white supremacy. Although it is probably not possible to shift any of these voters to Democrats, not all white Trump voters are impervious to change.
While Democratic candidates realize the importance of black voters, none of them have advocated policy positions directly aimed blacks. Black and brown candidates also chose not to promote policies aimed explicitly at blacks. Of course, some of the policies the candidates advocate benefit blacks, although not aimed at them.
Other white voters supported Trump because he claimed that the federal government expends its energy and resources on lifting minorities. Some of these voters might be convinced to vote for a Democrat if the candidates advocated policies aimed at them. The Democratic candidates also fail to direct their policy proposals to these voters, although these voters might benefit.
Ian Haney Lopez in his book, Merge Left, gave examples of appealing to voters with an explicitly racial message. Lopez conducted messaging research that shows both Trump voters and black voters are moved by appeals that say government proposals will benefit both white and black voters. Lopez’s research shows that policy proposals or requests by that the government that avoids plainly talking about race are ineffective. Neither whites nor blacks believe government policies will benefit them. They are cynical about government policies, in part, because Republicans have disparaged government for years.
Rising Inequality
Trump and his supporters, like Democrats, believe that inequality has been increasing with devastating effects on the middle- and working-class. Trump’s explanation for rising this inequality is “dumb” government officials who allow our resources to be stolen and impoverished immigrants from underdeveloped countries because they plunder our society. Given Trump’s view of the causes of inequality, his prescriptions flow rather seamlessly. First, Trump seeks to end any foreign alliances that may cost the U.S. money or other resources, even if those alliances increase our security and help stabilize the world. Second, he wants to raise tariffs on goods imported from to which the U.S. has a trade deficit. And third, Trump wants to stop all immigration from underdeveloped countries.
Democrats, on the other hand, explain rising inequality in at least three ways. They stress the role of technological changes in unemployment. They tend to see re-training and education as a way to enhance worker skills and reduce inequality. Democrats also believe that globalization has undermined worker employment. Thus, they want “better” trade deals with more protections for U.S. workers.
Besides, Democrats believe that government policies such as minimal taxes on the rich and corporations; and lax regulations on corporations have also increased inequality. These Democrats want to remediate low taxes that hamper government spending on programs that help equalize society (i.e., education and medical). And most Democrats want to change the lax regulation or enforcement of existing regulations that are likely to harm the low- and middle-class through environmental, financial, and labor deficiencies.
The Democrat’s explanations lack the power of Trump’s erroneous explanation. They involve the interplay of different things and imply more complex solutions. As a result, Democratic reasons for rising inequality are more challenging to understand than Trump’s.
Democracy
Democratic contenders excoriate Trump for either ignoring or violating the elements of a Constitutional democracy such as one man, one vote; the rule of law; and the separation of powers. But they have yet to show voters why a Constitutional democracy serves them better than authoritarianism would. If a President offered voters good health care in exchange for an authoritarian government, some might accept the offer. Some voters do not believe their “democratic” government listens to them, and thus, don’t see the downside in authoritarianism. These voters do not understand the protections against both financial and physical exploitation that a democratic government provides for its citizens.
Other voters do not recognize how close we are coming to losing our democracy because they do not understand how Trump and the Republican Party are undermining the foundations of democracy. Trump refuses to abide by the rules and norms of his office. And the Republican Party refuses to hold him to account. As a result, Trump acts in many ways like a dictator. For example, Trump has assailed and brutalized an ambassador to help defeat a political opponent. And Trump has systematically benefitted the upper one percent at the cost to the other 99 percent.
Many voters, however, do understand the importance of retaining our constitutional democracy. None of the Democratic candidates has stressed how it may be slipping away and what it will mean to us if we lose it.
Identity
Identity politics refers to a political approach based on the interests of a group defined by race, religion, ethnicity, gender, or culture without regard to the issues of other groups. Identity politics certainly affected the concerns of voters in 2012. Trump ran as the protector of traditional white American values and status. And as President, he has continued to drive the message that he is protecting white America from the threat posed by Democrats.
Trump’s identity as a businessman who had achieved wealth and success through his association with unsavory Democrats, supported his claim that he could protect white America from them. The two Democrats whose identities come closest to their political messages are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sander's identity is of an old, cranky man who is tired of the ills the super-rich perpetrate. Warren’s identity is of an energetic fighter trying to make significant changes in the country’s economic structure.
But neither Sanders, Warren, nor any of the other Democrats, have identities that further their political message. Joe Biden’s political identity of Barack Obama’s Vice-President only promotes his message of being electable if he is leading in the polls. Barack Obama’s political identity, a black man running for President of the U.S., boosted his message of “yes, we can.”
If the Democratic nominee does not have an identity that pushes his or her message, then he or she will need to attack Trump’s identity. Both Bloomberg and Steyer are valuable in the race for the nomination because they undermine Trump’s identity as a wealthy and successful businessman. But, the Democratic nominee should highlight Trump’s many failings and subsequent lies about his shortcomings.
What Democrats Must Do to Win
The weakness of the Democratic field means that the rest of the Democratic Party must help the eventual nominee. Organizing and “get out the vote” groups will be crucial. Groups involved in organizing include Move On, Act Blue, Swing Left, Community Change Action, Mobilize America, Town Hall Project, Vote Run Lead, and Flippable.
Impeachment is a critically important event even though The Senate will not remove Trump from office. Also, it is unlikely that the Democrats will present any information that will dissuade the voters who support him. Of course, Democrats may persuade some valid swing voters to vote against Trump. But impeachment can excite and unite the Democratic base. The acquittal of white Klansmen accused of murdering black civil rights workers energized the civil rights movement. Democratic leaders need to use the impeachment to energize voters in 2020.
And well-spent money will have to be carefully targeted. For example, voter analytics in crucial battleground states will be vital. So far, it seems that some billionaires like Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer will be critical in providing the resources to identify voters that Democrats can persuade to vote for them. For example, Democrats seem to have fallen behind Republicans in collecting microdata on the issues motivating and, for some voters, conflicting their decisions.
Democratic candidates must adjust their messaging to address issues that voters’ concerns. They cannot use circumlocutions and assume that voters will understand what they are saying. And they must show voters precisely what they stand to lose if they re-elect Trump. Kitchen table issues are essential, but they are less important than our constitutional democracy.
Pete Buttigieg also has support among educated, middle-class suburban whites and little support among blacks. He is the youngest candidate and has made surprising gains among moderate voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. In addition to these front runners, three other candidates deserve mention. Amy Klobuchar has started making some gains in Iowa but still trails the leading four. She may find her progress halted by her duties as a juror in the upcoming Trump impeachment trial.
Two billionaires, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg don’t have much of a following at this point. But they have so much money they can stay in the race. And with most Democratic voters focused on beating Trump, both candidates may prove attractive because they can outspend Trump. Nonetheless, the Democrats who were able to unite the party and win the Presidency--Carter, Clinton, Obama--were exciting, new to national politics, young.
In addition to the Democratic candidates’ deficiencies, their messages seem to miss the concerns that affected voters in the 2016 election. First, race played a role in Trump’s election. Trump’s candidacy energized some whites, while some blacks were disheartened. Second, while all the Democratic candidates decry rising inequality, they have not settled on the diagnoses about its causes. Third, although all the Democratic candidates lament Trump’s trampling on Constitutional democracy, they do not tell voters what the advantages of democracy are for them. And, fourth, the Democratic candidates have not presented identities that embody and support the messages that are underpinning their candidacy.
Race
Most observers realize that the failure to rouse black voters in 2016 contributed to the Democratic loss. Similarly, Trump obtained unexpected support from some white voters because he espoused white supremacy. Although it is probably not possible to shift any of these voters to Democrats, not all white Trump voters are impervious to change.
While Democratic candidates realize the importance of black voters, none of them have advocated policy positions directly aimed blacks. Black and brown candidates also chose not to promote policies aimed explicitly at blacks. Of course, some of the policies the candidates advocate benefit blacks, although not aimed at them.
Other white voters supported Trump because he claimed that the federal government expends its energy and resources on lifting minorities. Some of these voters might be convinced to vote for a Democrat if the candidates advocated policies aimed at them. The Democratic candidates also fail to direct their policy proposals to these voters, although these voters might benefit.
Ian Haney Lopez in his book, Merge Left, gave examples of appealing to voters with an explicitly racial message. Lopez conducted messaging research that shows both Trump voters and black voters are moved by appeals that say government proposals will benefit both white and black voters. Lopez’s research shows that policy proposals or requests by that the government that avoids plainly talking about race are ineffective. Neither whites nor blacks believe government policies will benefit them. They are cynical about government policies, in part, because Republicans have disparaged government for years.
Rising Inequality
Trump and his supporters, like Democrats, believe that inequality has been increasing with devastating effects on the middle- and working-class. Trump’s explanation for rising this inequality is “dumb” government officials who allow our resources to be stolen and impoverished immigrants from underdeveloped countries because they plunder our society. Given Trump’s view of the causes of inequality, his prescriptions flow rather seamlessly. First, Trump seeks to end any foreign alliances that may cost the U.S. money or other resources, even if those alliances increase our security and help stabilize the world. Second, he wants to raise tariffs on goods imported from to which the U.S. has a trade deficit. And third, Trump wants to stop all immigration from underdeveloped countries.
Democrats, on the other hand, explain rising inequality in at least three ways. They stress the role of technological changes in unemployment. They tend to see re-training and education as a way to enhance worker skills and reduce inequality. Democrats also believe that globalization has undermined worker employment. Thus, they want “better” trade deals with more protections for U.S. workers.
Besides, Democrats believe that government policies such as minimal taxes on the rich and corporations; and lax regulations on corporations have also increased inequality. These Democrats want to remediate low taxes that hamper government spending on programs that help equalize society (i.e., education and medical). And most Democrats want to change the lax regulation or enforcement of existing regulations that are likely to harm the low- and middle-class through environmental, financial, and labor deficiencies.
The Democrat’s explanations lack the power of Trump’s erroneous explanation. They involve the interplay of different things and imply more complex solutions. As a result, Democratic reasons for rising inequality are more challenging to understand than Trump’s.
Democracy
Democratic contenders excoriate Trump for either ignoring or violating the elements of a Constitutional democracy such as one man, one vote; the rule of law; and the separation of powers. But they have yet to show voters why a Constitutional democracy serves them better than authoritarianism would. If a President offered voters good health care in exchange for an authoritarian government, some might accept the offer. Some voters do not believe their “democratic” government listens to them, and thus, don’t see the downside in authoritarianism. These voters do not understand the protections against both financial and physical exploitation that a democratic government provides for its citizens.
Other voters do not recognize how close we are coming to losing our democracy because they do not understand how Trump and the Republican Party are undermining the foundations of democracy. Trump refuses to abide by the rules and norms of his office. And the Republican Party refuses to hold him to account. As a result, Trump acts in many ways like a dictator. For example, Trump has assailed and brutalized an ambassador to help defeat a political opponent. And Trump has systematically benefitted the upper one percent at the cost to the other 99 percent.
Many voters, however, do understand the importance of retaining our constitutional democracy. None of the Democratic candidates has stressed how it may be slipping away and what it will mean to us if we lose it.
Identity
Identity politics refers to a political approach based on the interests of a group defined by race, religion, ethnicity, gender, or culture without regard to the issues of other groups. Identity politics certainly affected the concerns of voters in 2012. Trump ran as the protector of traditional white American values and status. And as President, he has continued to drive the message that he is protecting white America from the threat posed by Democrats.
Trump’s identity as a businessman who had achieved wealth and success through his association with unsavory Democrats, supported his claim that he could protect white America from them. The two Democrats whose identities come closest to their political messages are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sander's identity is of an old, cranky man who is tired of the ills the super-rich perpetrate. Warren’s identity is of an energetic fighter trying to make significant changes in the country’s economic structure.
But neither Sanders, Warren, nor any of the other Democrats, have identities that further their political message. Joe Biden’s political identity of Barack Obama’s Vice-President only promotes his message of being electable if he is leading in the polls. Barack Obama’s political identity, a black man running for President of the U.S., boosted his message of “yes, we can.”
If the Democratic nominee does not have an identity that pushes his or her message, then he or she will need to attack Trump’s identity. Both Bloomberg and Steyer are valuable in the race for the nomination because they undermine Trump’s identity as a wealthy and successful businessman. But, the Democratic nominee should highlight Trump’s many failings and subsequent lies about his shortcomings.
What Democrats Must Do to Win
The weakness of the Democratic field means that the rest of the Democratic Party must help the eventual nominee. Organizing and “get out the vote” groups will be crucial. Groups involved in organizing include Move On, Act Blue, Swing Left, Community Change Action, Mobilize America, Town Hall Project, Vote Run Lead, and Flippable.
Impeachment is a critically important event even though The Senate will not remove Trump from office. Also, it is unlikely that the Democrats will present any information that will dissuade the voters who support him. Of course, Democrats may persuade some valid swing voters to vote against Trump. But impeachment can excite and unite the Democratic base. The acquittal of white Klansmen accused of murdering black civil rights workers energized the civil rights movement. Democratic leaders need to use the impeachment to energize voters in 2020.
And well-spent money will have to be carefully targeted. For example, voter analytics in crucial battleground states will be vital. So far, it seems that some billionaires like Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer will be critical in providing the resources to identify voters that Democrats can persuade to vote for them. For example, Democrats seem to have fallen behind Republicans in collecting microdata on the issues motivating and, for some voters, conflicting their decisions.
Democratic candidates must adjust their messaging to address issues that voters’ concerns. They cannot use circumlocutions and assume that voters will understand what they are saying. And they must show voters precisely what they stand to lose if they re-elect Trump. Kitchen table issues are essential, but they are less important than our constitutional democracy.