Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, gavels Impeachment. Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images Impeaching Donald Trump was inevitable. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former political strategist, predicted that Trump had a one in three chance of completing his term without being impeached. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tried to avoid impeachment, fearing a voter backlash could erode the Democratic majority.
When the Democrats and the media discovered Trump’s scheme to extort a foreign government to interfere in the 2020 presidential election, they had no choice. Trump planned to withhold Congressionally earmarked funds from the Ukrainian unless it announced starting a corruption investigation of his anticipated opponent, Joe Biden.
When the Democrats and the media discovered Trump’s scheme to extort a foreign government to interfere in the 2020 presidential election, they had no choice. Trump planned to withhold Congressionally earmarked funds from the Ukrainian unless it announced starting a corruption investigation of his anticipated opponent, Joe Biden.
| Pelosi believes that the failure to curtail Trump is an existential threat to our democracy. |
Many progressives in the Democratic caucus had been calling for Trump’s impeachment since, at least, the Mueller Report was issued. But, newly elected Democrats from predominantly Republican districts were reluctant to risk their seats. But, the moderate Democrats, especially those with foreign policy expertise, joined the call for impeachment, Pelosi was then forced to lead her caucus to impeach Trump.
The Democrats’ impeachment of Trump was the principled response to Trump’s criminal behavior. Trump’s invitation to a foreign government to intervene in an American election violated federal law. It is illegal to solicit something of value for a campaign. Moreover, one of the founding fathers’ leading fears was of a president who conspired with a foreign government. For the founding fathers, this example of Trump’s behavior would probably come closer to representing an original sin than any other.
Nevertheless, some of us feel disquiet about the Democrats’ decision to impeach. The House has impeached Trump, but that decision seems not to have been a part of a broader strategy. Some Congressional Democrats have argued that impeachment was necessary to inhibit Trump’s unlawful interference in the 2020 election. But it is nearly inconceivable that twenty Republicans -- along with the forty-seven Democrats, the number needed to convict Trump – will flip. Too many Senate, Republicans, believe that both their election and the survival of the Republican Party is at stake if they condemn Trump.
Is there anything Democrats can do to increase the likelihood of a conviction? Or, at least, to increase the number of Republican Senators who vote to convict Trump. If even one Republican Senator votes to remove Trump, he or she will undermine the charge of Democratic hostility.
If Trump is not convicted, he will claim exoneration. Democrats were thus reluctant to impeach Trump. According to some reports, Trump is already planning a celebration tour, after his Senate acquittal.
More important than the impact of Trump's “exoneration message,” however, is the potential for his further interference in the 2020 election. Trump solicited Russian intervention to help win in 2016. He seems to be continuing to pull dirty tricks in Ukraine. Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, who spearheaded the extortion in Ukraine, just returned from another trip to Ukraine last week. Giuliani boasted of having unearthed “more incriminating evidence against the Bidens.”
Although Democrats have limited power, they can try to shape the outcome Senate trial. Pelosi has already announced that she is withholding the impeachment referral from the Senate until Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agrees to hold a fair trial. McConnell and other Republican Senators have publicly announced that they have already decided to acquit Trump without calling additional witnesses or presenting further evidence.
Mitch McConnell claims that he is happy with Pelosi’s tactic of withholding the impeachment referral because he does not want to have the Senate vote on it. Thus, McConnell argues that Pelosi does have any bargaining power. But McConnell does not have as much control over this trial as he usually has over Senate proceedings.
If public opinion indicates that people expect a fair trial with witnesses and evidence, then Trump can only be exonerated by a “fair trial.” A trial without witnesses and other evidence, ending with a summary vote by Senators who have already announced their intention to acquit Trump cannot vindicate him. If Trump wants vindication, he must accede to Pelosi’s demand. And McConnell will have no choice other than to have a fair trial.
The pundits who see Trump’s impeachment as just another part of the Washington game may not recognize how important Pelosi considers the threat posed by Trump. Pelosi believes that the failure to curtail Trump is an existential threat to our democracy. Pelosi could delay referring the impeachment to the Senate until after March when the tempo of primaries has slowed. Considering the significance Pelosi sees as the stakes riding on a fair impeachment trial, Pelosi may need to hold the referral to the Senate as an appropriate solution to match the extremely grave threat.
The Democrats’ impeachment of Trump was the principled response to Trump’s criminal behavior. Trump’s invitation to a foreign government to intervene in an American election violated federal law. It is illegal to solicit something of value for a campaign. Moreover, one of the founding fathers’ leading fears was of a president who conspired with a foreign government. For the founding fathers, this example of Trump’s behavior would probably come closer to representing an original sin than any other.
Nevertheless, some of us feel disquiet about the Democrats’ decision to impeach. The House has impeached Trump, but that decision seems not to have been a part of a broader strategy. Some Congressional Democrats have argued that impeachment was necessary to inhibit Trump’s unlawful interference in the 2020 election. But it is nearly inconceivable that twenty Republicans -- along with the forty-seven Democrats, the number needed to convict Trump – will flip. Too many Senate, Republicans, believe that both their election and the survival of the Republican Party is at stake if they condemn Trump.
Is there anything Democrats can do to increase the likelihood of a conviction? Or, at least, to increase the number of Republican Senators who vote to convict Trump. If even one Republican Senator votes to remove Trump, he or she will undermine the charge of Democratic hostility.
If Trump is not convicted, he will claim exoneration. Democrats were thus reluctant to impeach Trump. According to some reports, Trump is already planning a celebration tour, after his Senate acquittal.
More important than the impact of Trump's “exoneration message,” however, is the potential for his further interference in the 2020 election. Trump solicited Russian intervention to help win in 2016. He seems to be continuing to pull dirty tricks in Ukraine. Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, who spearheaded the extortion in Ukraine, just returned from another trip to Ukraine last week. Giuliani boasted of having unearthed “more incriminating evidence against the Bidens.”
Although Democrats have limited power, they can try to shape the outcome Senate trial. Pelosi has already announced that she is withholding the impeachment referral from the Senate until Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agrees to hold a fair trial. McConnell and other Republican Senators have publicly announced that they have already decided to acquit Trump without calling additional witnesses or presenting further evidence.
Mitch McConnell claims that he is happy with Pelosi’s tactic of withholding the impeachment referral because he does not want to have the Senate vote on it. Thus, McConnell argues that Pelosi does have any bargaining power. But McConnell does not have as much control over this trial as he usually has over Senate proceedings.
If public opinion indicates that people expect a fair trial with witnesses and evidence, then Trump can only be exonerated by a “fair trial.” A trial without witnesses and other evidence, ending with a summary vote by Senators who have already announced their intention to acquit Trump cannot vindicate him. If Trump wants vindication, he must accede to Pelosi’s demand. And McConnell will have no choice other than to have a fair trial.
The pundits who see Trump’s impeachment as just another part of the Washington game may not recognize how important Pelosi considers the threat posed by Trump. Pelosi believes that the failure to curtail Trump is an existential threat to our democracy. Pelosi could delay referring the impeachment to the Senate until after March when the tempo of primaries has slowed. Considering the significance Pelosi sees as the stakes riding on a fair impeachment trial, Pelosi may need to hold the referral to the Senate as an appropriate solution to match the extremely grave threat.