 Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump -Feb. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana) |  President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the White House. Nathan Howard/Getty Images |
President Biden performed catastrophically in the first presidential debate in 2024 with former President Donald Trump. He misspoke, slurred his words, and failed to rebut the most egregious of Trump's lies. Democrats were shocked into their fallback position: looking for a candidate to replace Biden. Some Democrats began to express their belief that Biden should drop out of the race and allow another candidate to face Trump. Elected officials, donors, and other Democratic activists have expressed extreme anxiety about Biden's debate performance. They fear Biden suffers from growing senility or other conditions that would prevent him from winning the election and serving a second term. They want Biden to withdraw so that they can select another candidate.
Even if Biden's debate performance was simply a one-off event, those Democrats who believe Biden should not be the Democratic nominee point to polls showing Trump leading or tied with Biden for over a year. This trend is especially alarming to these Democrats because Biden is tied to or trailing Trump in the three critical swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Replacing Biden with a candidate chosen by the party's elite has risks. Millions of people voted for Biden in the Democratic primaries. Disregarding their votes would run counter to a fundamental Democratic message: Republicans do not accept the results of free and fair elections. Democrats care about what voters want and say. Ignoring the 14 million people who voted for Biden during the primaries would undermine a critical narrative Democrats have fashioned to defeat Republicans.
Nonetheless, those Democrats who want Biden to withdraw as the nominee believe there are reasons for ignoring the results of the primaries. First, Democrats who oppose Biden argue that the polls indicated that voters wanted someone other than Biden as the nominee. And because they didn't have another primary candidate other than Biden, they might now be permitted to ignore the votes of 14 million people. Second, no one ran against Biden because Biden supporters told other potential candidates they had to support Biden and show a united front to stop Trump. Although the cumulative weight of Biden's poor poll performance was not fully manifest over a year ago, there was enough polling data to sound an alarm. Nevertheless, during the long run-up to "election season," Democrats were so exuberant about the success of the Biden-Harris administration that they were unwilling to address the issue of Biden's age.
Biden's weak showing in the polls may also be partly due to disinformation. There is a lot of disinformation surrounding Biden's cognitive health, just as there was disinformation surrounding Hillary Clinton's health. Reporters and others are now coming forward with stories about Biden's cognitive dysfunction, just as there were stories about Hillary. For example, one such Biden story is that he tells the same story repeatedly in the same conversation. Some of Biden's political opponents claimed that his capability in public and private appearances was due to his getting jacked up on performance-enhancing substances or even sugary Yahoo soda. These stories, however, confirm the role of disinformation rather than proving Biden's cognitive dysfunction. If he had such a condition, we would have heard about it before the debate. Instead, we have heard from some neutral sources that Biden was sharp and fully in command in meetings.
Relying on polling data to make decisions is often no better than flipping a coin, especially in close elections. Despite protestations by many pollsters, the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections are examples of polling misfires. Other models that claim to predict presidential elections, such as Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys, identify incumbency as a decisive aspect of presidential elections. Presumably, incumbency would be a stalemate in a contest between Trump and Biden. It should be noted that many recent elections in Europe have swung against the incumbent, except for France's
Regardless of how Biden's chances of defeating Trump are measured, two factors have raised the stakes of what a Biden defeat would mean. First, the news media has discovered the Republican plans for the U.S. as described in the Project 2025 document. While this 925-page document describing their plans for purging the U.S. Constitution and turning the country into a dictatorship is based on the long-standing Republican "unitary executive theory," its explicitness is more than frightening. At the same time, the Supreme Court handed down a decision granting presidents immunity from prosecution for all official actions. The Supreme Court ultimately determines what act is official, although selling a presidential pardon would presumably be official.
Another reason some Democrats are calling for Biden to withdraw is that after the firestorm that arose over his age, the narrative for his election has been drowned out. Of course, it is these same Democrats that have fueled the firestorm and the distraction from Biden's extensive successes. Biden's narrative is that he offered a return to normalcy, an especially potent message for a post-Trump and COVID environment. During his three-and-a-half years as President, he delivered. The economy is booming, employment is high, and crime is down. However, the more a sense of normalcy returned, the more some voters focused on the deficiencies Biden had not addressed. Deficiencies include failing to reverse inequality masquerading as inflation, failing to bolster the guardrails of our institutions, and failing to hold those who have corrupted our institutions to account. The failure to deliver on these deficiencies has allowed Trump to trumpet his pre-COVID years as the President with a relatively strong economy. And Trump lies about any deficiencies from his term in office, like a million COVID deaths.
Some opponents of Biden have failed to consider what replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee would entail. They seem to believe any younger replacement candidate would be better than Biden. A replacement nominee may not be a better candidate. A replacement candidate may have characteristics we are currently unaware of but would be mindful of during a campaign. There is not enough time to thoroughly vet an alternative to Biden. Any replacement candidate may have personal problems or lack voter appeal for a national audience. We've seen Republican examples like Scott Walker and Ron DeSantis, who initially appear to be party darlings but fall flat when there is real scrutiny.
Even if Biden's debate performance was simply a one-off event, those Democrats who believe Biden should not be the Democratic nominee point to polls showing Trump leading or tied with Biden for over a year. This trend is especially alarming to these Democrats because Biden is tied to or trailing Trump in the three critical swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Replacing Biden with a candidate chosen by the party's elite has risks. Millions of people voted for Biden in the Democratic primaries. Disregarding their votes would run counter to a fundamental Democratic message: Republicans do not accept the results of free and fair elections. Democrats care about what voters want and say. Ignoring the 14 million people who voted for Biden during the primaries would undermine a critical narrative Democrats have fashioned to defeat Republicans.
Nonetheless, those Democrats who want Biden to withdraw as the nominee believe there are reasons for ignoring the results of the primaries. First, Democrats who oppose Biden argue that the polls indicated that voters wanted someone other than Biden as the nominee. And because they didn't have another primary candidate other than Biden, they might now be permitted to ignore the votes of 14 million people. Second, no one ran against Biden because Biden supporters told other potential candidates they had to support Biden and show a united front to stop Trump. Although the cumulative weight of Biden's poor poll performance was not fully manifest over a year ago, there was enough polling data to sound an alarm. Nevertheless, during the long run-up to "election season," Democrats were so exuberant about the success of the Biden-Harris administration that they were unwilling to address the issue of Biden's age.
Biden's weak showing in the polls may also be partly due to disinformation. There is a lot of disinformation surrounding Biden's cognitive health, just as there was disinformation surrounding Hillary Clinton's health. Reporters and others are now coming forward with stories about Biden's cognitive dysfunction, just as there were stories about Hillary. For example, one such Biden story is that he tells the same story repeatedly in the same conversation. Some of Biden's political opponents claimed that his capability in public and private appearances was due to his getting jacked up on performance-enhancing substances or even sugary Yahoo soda. These stories, however, confirm the role of disinformation rather than proving Biden's cognitive dysfunction. If he had such a condition, we would have heard about it before the debate. Instead, we have heard from some neutral sources that Biden was sharp and fully in command in meetings.
Relying on polling data to make decisions is often no better than flipping a coin, especially in close elections. Despite protestations by many pollsters, the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections are examples of polling misfires. Other models that claim to predict presidential elections, such as Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys, identify incumbency as a decisive aspect of presidential elections. Presumably, incumbency would be a stalemate in a contest between Trump and Biden. It should be noted that many recent elections in Europe have swung against the incumbent, except for France's
Regardless of how Biden's chances of defeating Trump are measured, two factors have raised the stakes of what a Biden defeat would mean. First, the news media has discovered the Republican plans for the U.S. as described in the Project 2025 document. While this 925-page document describing their plans for purging the U.S. Constitution and turning the country into a dictatorship is based on the long-standing Republican "unitary executive theory," its explicitness is more than frightening. At the same time, the Supreme Court handed down a decision granting presidents immunity from prosecution for all official actions. The Supreme Court ultimately determines what act is official, although selling a presidential pardon would presumably be official.
Another reason some Democrats are calling for Biden to withdraw is that after the firestorm that arose over his age, the narrative for his election has been drowned out. Of course, it is these same Democrats that have fueled the firestorm and the distraction from Biden's extensive successes. Biden's narrative is that he offered a return to normalcy, an especially potent message for a post-Trump and COVID environment. During his three-and-a-half years as President, he delivered. The economy is booming, employment is high, and crime is down. However, the more a sense of normalcy returned, the more some voters focused on the deficiencies Biden had not addressed. Deficiencies include failing to reverse inequality masquerading as inflation, failing to bolster the guardrails of our institutions, and failing to hold those who have corrupted our institutions to account. The failure to deliver on these deficiencies has allowed Trump to trumpet his pre-COVID years as the President with a relatively strong economy. And Trump lies about any deficiencies from his term in office, like a million COVID deaths.
Some opponents of Biden have failed to consider what replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee would entail. They seem to believe any younger replacement candidate would be better than Biden. A replacement nominee may not be a better candidate. A replacement candidate may have characteristics we are currently unaware of but would be mindful of during a campaign. There is not enough time to thoroughly vet an alternative to Biden. Any replacement candidate may have personal problems or lack voter appeal for a national audience. We've seen Republican examples like Scott Walker and Ron DeSantis, who initially appear to be party darlings but fall flat when there is real scrutiny.
Kamala Harris is the only realistic potential replacement nominee. But this facile solution may be short-sighted. Kamala would easily have access to the campaign apparatus, staff, and funds established by the Biden-Harris campaign. And while Kamala brings specific strengths to the head of the ticket, it is certainly not clear that she would perform better than Biden. Moreover, Harris would face the right-wing noise and disinformation machine that other Democratic candidates have faced. In 2004, a decorated war hero, John Kerry, ran against George W. Bush. Kerry's speech accepting his party's nomination was noted by Kerry saluting and saying that he was "reporting for duty." The right-wing disinformation machine attacked his war record, and Kerry lost to an incumbent who was credibly accused of having gone absent without leave for over a year. A younger candidate would not be immune from Fascist/MAGA disinformation. Trump has already increased his attacks on Kamala Harris in anticipation of her moving to the top of the ticket. And these attacks, as expected, target her race and gender. Also, it is very late for anyone other than Kamala to mount a national campaign.
As Vice President, Harris offers another strength for the Biden Harris ticket. Some Democrats who want Biden to withdraw argue that he will undoubtedly become feebler over time and is unlikely to be able to serve another four years. However, the U.S. Constitution foresaw this possibility when it provided for an office of the vice president. Harris will be more than able to complete Biden's term. This election is to save the country; if Biden accomplishes that, a President Harris on January 23 is not a loss.
Regardless of whether Biden withdraws from the race, the Democratic candidate will need our help – a lot of it. The failure to unify helps put Trump in office. A full-fledged attack is required to defeat Trump. Anyone concerned with American democracy and American stability has to work to elect Joe Biden. It is a vote for the country, not for the man.
As Vice President, Harris offers another strength for the Biden Harris ticket. Some Democrats who want Biden to withdraw argue that he will undoubtedly become feebler over time and is unlikely to be able to serve another four years. However, the U.S. Constitution foresaw this possibility when it provided for an office of the vice president. Harris will be more than able to complete Biden's term. This election is to save the country; if Biden accomplishes that, a President Harris on January 23 is not a loss.
Regardless of whether Biden withdraws from the race, the Democratic candidate will need our help – a lot of it. The failure to unify helps put Trump in office. A full-fledged attack is required to defeat Trump. Anyone concerned with American democracy and American stability has to work to elect Joe Biden. It is a vote for the country, not for the man.