There are two plausible explanations for Donald Trump’s commutation of Roger Stone’s sentence. The first explanation is that Stone had information that, if made pubic, could damage Trump’s bid for re-election. Stone may have threatened to provide information that Trump conspired with the WikiLeaks and the Russians. The Mueller Report, and later legal proceedings, found that Stone’s perjury helped to conceal evidence of a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russians.
The second explanation is that Trump believes he needs Stone to save his flagging re-election campaign. Stone was instrumental in Trump’s 2016 win. Stone was the Russian affiliated Wikileaks go-between for Trump and his campaign. According to testimony and documentary evidence introduced at Stone’s trial, Trump discussed the Wikileaks disclosures of stolen email information with Stone and his campaign officials. Trump later denied that these conversations took place in sworn written testimony.
In either case, Trump’s falling poll numbers play a role in the pressure Stone exerted on Trump to rescue him from prison. If Stone thought Trump would lose the election, he might have been unwilling to wait for a pardon. Stone might well have feared that Trump would avoid offending the incoming Attorney General and not grant him any relief. And Trump’s low poll numbers would make him seek Stone’s help.
Some observers have suggested that Trump commuted Stone’s sentence because of their past friendship. I reject the plausibility of this explanation because it assumes Trump can feel empathy, something he has not proven. I also reject any explanation that Trump’s commuted Stone’s sentence is an attempt to undermine Trump’s conspiracy with Vladimir Putin against the people of the U.S. That assumes Trump has an ability to plan. Trump has shown no such capacity.
Trump commuted Stone’s sentence to minimize any backlash that might have occurred with a pardon. Commuting Stone’s sentence might have been Trump’s compromise between Attorney General William Barr’s advice not to interfere with Stone’s sentence and Stone’s request for a pardon. Trump may have believed the commutation would satisfy Stone while preventing a backlash against his interference in the judicial process.
One pundit has suggested that by ignoring Barr’s advice, Trump showed an acknowledgment that a pardon would make re-election harder. If either of the most plausible explanations for Trump’s commutation is true, then it is clear Trump will do anything he believes is necessary to win re-election. And the more desperate he becomes, the more extreme his reaction will become.