 In the lead up to Monday’s Presidential debate, the Main Stream Media delighted in playing zingers from previous debates. Some pundits have actually constructed explanations of why previous candidates with the best zinger won both the debate and the election. Despite the simplicity of the zinger explanation the best way to score the debate is as a function of whose strategic goals were best met. Hillary Clinton’s primary goal is build enthusiasm among Democratic voters, especially among millennials who were key to Obama’s victories and ensure the viability of the coalition he built. Of course, her secondary goal is to minimize or at least refrain from arousing any additional hatred from Trump’s natural constituency while she rebuilds the Obama coalition. |
| Trump’s key strategic goal was to capture all of the whites who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and to turn out other whites who either voted for Obama or who were so disillusioned they failed to turn out. The idea of a large group of white voters who have been so disillusioned they did not vote for Mitt Romney or John McCain, the Republican nominees in 2012 and 2008, respectively, is an idea that first surfaced among the extreme right, but has now been adopted by the Trump campaign. One Republican pollster has estimated that John McCain received about 4.2 million votes in 2008 more than Mitt Romney received in 2012. Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway believes there is another reason for assuming there is a “hidden Trump vote.” According to Conway the 3 to 9 point higher percentage of Trump supporters when anonymous on-line polls are conducted compared to less anonymous telephone polls means that that there must be a hidden white vote. One Republican pollster has countered these arguments by pointing out most of the “disillusioned” white non-voters in 2012 lived in red states and thus would not have affected the Electoral College outcome. In any event, President Obama won by 5 million votes, less than the missing 4.2 million white votes. In addition, the failure of these potential voters to vote in the last election call into question the likelihood of their voting in 2016. President Obama won by 5 million votes, 800,000 more than the missing white voters. Nonetheless, finding missing white voters is the only strategy left to Trump, given his write-off of blacks, Latinos, educated whites, especially white women. To score the Clinton-Trump debate, points go to the candidate whose performance was most consistent with their strategic goals. It is unlikely that Clinton’s performance aroused hatred among any voters, even though she appealed to the Democratic base. The primary question is whether she made progress with the millennials, a group she needs, but has struggled to win their support. The results of the early polls suggests she is making some progress with millennials, and thus, score a plus for Hillary. One must wait until November 9 to see how many of the presumed missing white voters materialized for Donald Trump. However, Trump clearly did not pull in any voters above what seems to be his 40-43 percent “deplorable” base. Score a minus for Trump! |