YURI GRIPASYURI GRIPAS/AFP/Getty Images
The safest bet to make right now is that Donald Trump will finish out his first term. Though we hate to start our letter to you with such a bleak statement, we’re sticking with reality here. Since becoming President, Donald Trump has been so overt about subverting justice and enriching his family that he has shown his intellectual and psychological unfitness to be President. Nonetheless, the Constitutional provisions for removing a President through impeachment or incapacitation (25th Amendment) all start with the Republican leadership deciding to move against Trump.
Given Republican intransigence to recognize any circumstances surrounding the election or subsequent clumsy efforts by Trump to derail the investigations, there is almost no chance that impeachment or incapacitation can happen. Some Democrats continue to believe that the daily revelations of ineptitude, criminality and unethical behavior will eventually convince enough Congressional Republicans to seriously consider impeachment. But, Republican recognition that high crimes and misdemeanors have been committed, the Constitutional standard for impeachment, is a political action that could destroy the Republican Party. As Paul Krugman argues, Republicans are now not so much statesmen as they are apparatchiks who show their loyalty to the billionaires funding their party. They show their blind and binding loyalty to the oligarchic system. The “brave” Republicans make occasional veiled remarks to show they understand how corrupt Trump is, but then show no patriotism or responsibility when voting. As long as the Republicans hold the House we are almost certainly not going to see an impeachment and even less likely to see two-thirds of the Senate vote to convict.
Given Republican intransigence to recognize any circumstances surrounding the election or subsequent clumsy efforts by Trump to derail the investigations, there is almost no chance that impeachment or incapacitation can happen. Some Democrats continue to believe that the daily revelations of ineptitude, criminality and unethical behavior will eventually convince enough Congressional Republicans to seriously consider impeachment. But, Republican recognition that high crimes and misdemeanors have been committed, the Constitutional standard for impeachment, is a political action that could destroy the Republican Party. As Paul Krugman argues, Republicans are now not so much statesmen as they are apparatchiks who show their loyalty to the billionaires funding their party. They show their blind and binding loyalty to the oligarchic system. The “brave” Republicans make occasional veiled remarks to show they understand how corrupt Trump is, but then show no patriotism or responsibility when voting. As long as the Republicans hold the House we are almost certainly not going to see an impeachment and even less likely to see two-thirds of the Senate vote to convict.
Other Democrats are optimistic that they may be able to take the House of Representatives in the 2018 elections because they only need a net gain of 24 seats. However, due to gerrymandering, voter suppression, Russian interference, and the proven unpredictability of the Trump base, gaining 24 seats may prove more difficult than it appears. Also, many prognosticators are not confident that the Democratic Party can unify and develop the messaging needed to take the House in 2018.
Even if Democrats controlled the House and impeached Donald Trump, will not be convicted in the Senate. Democrats essentially cannot take the Senate in 2018 because only one Republican, Dean Heller, seems in danger of losing while nine Democrats are running in states that may flip Republican. There is essentially no respected prognosticator who gives the Dems much hope. Republicans have to defend 8 seats while Democrats will be defending 25 seats --10 of which are especially vulnerable because they are in states that Trump won.
Democrats are rightfully impressed by the groundswell of support from the “resistance”. But, the Democratic party cannot sit back in hopes that public opinion against Trump will motivate those who seldom or never vote to vote in numbers great enough to overwhelm the sophisticated voter suppression and interference programs set to oppose it. This is politically irresponsible naivete. So far we do not see an organized Democratic Party harnessing the passion of the resistance. We don’t’ see that Democrats are willing to take the growing evidence of democratic erosion to smear the Republicans. If the Dems do take the House in 2018, impeachment hearings they will have the chance to spotlight just how the Republican Party is not working to Make America Great Again, but is instead supporting a despot in order to make the wealthy even wealthier.
Even if Democrats controlled the House and impeached Donald Trump, will not be convicted in the Senate. Democrats essentially cannot take the Senate in 2018 because only one Republican, Dean Heller, seems in danger of losing while nine Democrats are running in states that may flip Republican. There is essentially no respected prognosticator who gives the Dems much hope. Republicans have to defend 8 seats while Democrats will be defending 25 seats --10 of which are especially vulnerable because they are in states that Trump won.
Democrats are rightfully impressed by the groundswell of support from the “resistance”. But, the Democratic party cannot sit back in hopes that public opinion against Trump will motivate those who seldom or never vote to vote in numbers great enough to overwhelm the sophisticated voter suppression and interference programs set to oppose it. This is politically irresponsible naivete. So far we do not see an organized Democratic Party harnessing the passion of the resistance. We don’t’ see that Democrats are willing to take the growing evidence of democratic erosion to smear the Republicans. If the Dems do take the House in 2018, impeachment hearings they will have the chance to spotlight just how the Republican Party is not working to Make America Great Again, but is instead supporting a despot in order to make the wealthy even wealthier.