Nancy Pelosi - October 15, 2019. Zach Gibson/Getty Images
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Summary
Delay in the impeachment process of Donald Trump advantages Democrats. The longer impeachment process lingers, the more likely public opinion will turn against Trump. There are serious allegations against Trump and an impeachment process will make voters aware of them. Trump’s re-election bid is likely to be unsuccessful considering the negative information uncovered during an impeachment process. Democrats should not rush impeachment; they should concentrate on turning public opinion against Trump. |
Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, long resisted opening an impeachment inquiry. For at least four months, Pelosi steadfastly refused because public opinion ran counter to impeachment. She did not feel the House Democrats had or could gain support from the public. Swing voters, especially in districts Trump won, could lead a backlash against Democrats and potentially wipe out their 2018 electoral gains in the House.
The political calculus changed following a leaked story of Donald Trump offering arms for dirt. A whistleblower accused Trump of withholding a Congressionally-mandated shipment of arms to Ukraine unless the Ukrainian President initiated an investigation of Joe Biden. Trump believed Biden would be his strongest Democratic challenger.
Attempting to counter this story, Trump released the notes of his phone call with the Ukrainian President. Those notes showed that Trump tried to extort the Ukrainian President to dig up political dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter in return for releasing the arms. Specifically, the notes indicate that when the Ukrainian President asked to purchase weapons, Trump responded by stating he would require a favor: the investigation of Biden and his son Hunter.
Pelosi and the House Democrats reversed themselves. On Tuesday, September 24, Pelosi announced that the House would begin an impeachment investigation. The following week the House Intelligence Committee started an ambitious schedule of hearings and depositions. Trump ended this string of proceedings by exerting a dubious claim of executive privilege. This claim, nonetheless, prevented Gordon Sondland, Ambassador to European Union, from being deposed or complying with subpoenas.
The political calculus changed following a leaked story of Donald Trump offering arms for dirt. A whistleblower accused Trump of withholding a Congressionally-mandated shipment of arms to Ukraine unless the Ukrainian President initiated an investigation of Joe Biden. Trump believed Biden would be his strongest Democratic challenger.
Attempting to counter this story, Trump released the notes of his phone call with the Ukrainian President. Those notes showed that Trump tried to extort the Ukrainian President to dig up political dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter in return for releasing the arms. Specifically, the notes indicate that when the Ukrainian President asked to purchase weapons, Trump responded by stating he would require a favor: the investigation of Biden and his son Hunter.
Pelosi and the House Democrats reversed themselves. On Tuesday, September 24, Pelosi announced that the House would begin an impeachment investigation. The following week the House Intelligence Committee started an ambitious schedule of hearings and depositions. Trump ended this string of proceedings by exerting a dubious claim of executive privilege. This claim, nonetheless, prevented Gordon Sondland, Ambassador to European Union, from being deposed or complying with subpoenas.
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In the three weeks since Pelosi’s announcement, public opinion has shifted against Trump. In the lead up to Pelosi’s decision, only 37 to 41 percent of adults favored starting an impeachment proceeding. After the announcement 58 percent favor beginning impeachment proceedings. This increase in the percentage of people advocating impeachment proceedings is good news for the Democrats. But Trump’s declaration that he is not required to cooperate with the Congress’ impeachment proceedings raises concerns about whether Congress can obtain needed witnesses and documents.
Trump’s refusal to cooperate in this impeachment inquiry is concerning. The Trump administration undermined a planned investigation of the Mueller Report by refusing to cooperate. To counter Trump’s anticipated obstruction, Democrats changed their approach. Previously, Democrats, as part of the investigative function of Congress, issued subpoenas and sought the courts to enforce them. The result has been the inevitable delays in court disputes.
Trump views any delay as a victory because the closer we get to the 2020 election, the less likely it is that the Democrats will start impeachment proceedings. And, if the Democrats do start impeachment proceedings close to the election, then Trump will be able to claim they are politically motivated. The Democrats are also suspicious of impeachment proceedings running into the election. Democrats do not want their presidential nominee’s election message to compete with the House’s impeachment message. Trump’s efforts to block witnesses from testifying, derailed the Mueller Report's impeachment investigation.
For the Ukrainian investigation, the Democrats have availed themselves of two additional tactics besides court-enforced subpoenas. First, Democrats will infer an adverse finding of obstruction of Congress if witnesses fail to testify or provide documents. Of course, this may not deter Trump; he may believe that Pelosi will be able to pass articles of impeachment regardless of the number of few adverse findings. Second, Democrats will overcome Trump’s claims of executive privilege for those currently working for the administration by hearing testimony from witnesses who formerly worked for Trump.
Other witnesses who are in the administration, such as the whistleblowers and members of the civil service, may also be willing to testify. Regardless of how effective Democrats are at obtaining witness testimony, they should start accusing Trump of using obstruction to delay the process. Democrats should not rush a vote on articles of impeachment. Assuming voters do not blame Democrats for delays, the longer an impeachment inquiry takes, the better it is for them. Based on the Watergate impeachment hearing, the longer the impeachment hearings run, the worse it will be for the President. And, while the Democratic candidate’s messaging may be distracted by an impeachment, Trump’s re-election bid is more likely to disintegrated by a substantive impeachment hearing.
Trump’s refusal to cooperate in this impeachment inquiry is concerning. The Trump administration undermined a planned investigation of the Mueller Report by refusing to cooperate. To counter Trump’s anticipated obstruction, Democrats changed their approach. Previously, Democrats, as part of the investigative function of Congress, issued subpoenas and sought the courts to enforce them. The result has been the inevitable delays in court disputes.
Trump views any delay as a victory because the closer we get to the 2020 election, the less likely it is that the Democrats will start impeachment proceedings. And, if the Democrats do start impeachment proceedings close to the election, then Trump will be able to claim they are politically motivated. The Democrats are also suspicious of impeachment proceedings running into the election. Democrats do not want their presidential nominee’s election message to compete with the House’s impeachment message. Trump’s efforts to block witnesses from testifying, derailed the Mueller Report's impeachment investigation.
For the Ukrainian investigation, the Democrats have availed themselves of two additional tactics besides court-enforced subpoenas. First, Democrats will infer an adverse finding of obstruction of Congress if witnesses fail to testify or provide documents. Of course, this may not deter Trump; he may believe that Pelosi will be able to pass articles of impeachment regardless of the number of few adverse findings. Second, Democrats will overcome Trump’s claims of executive privilege for those currently working for the administration by hearing testimony from witnesses who formerly worked for Trump.
Other witnesses who are in the administration, such as the whistleblowers and members of the civil service, may also be willing to testify. Regardless of how effective Democrats are at obtaining witness testimony, they should start accusing Trump of using obstruction to delay the process. Democrats should not rush a vote on articles of impeachment. Assuming voters do not blame Democrats for delays, the longer an impeachment inquiry takes, the better it is for them. Based on the Watergate impeachment hearing, the longer the impeachment hearings run, the worse it will be for the President. And, while the Democratic candidate’s messaging may be distracted by an impeachment, Trump’s re-election bid is more likely to disintegrated by a substantive impeachment hearing.
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