Kyrsten Sinema
Senator Kyrsten Sinema has switched her political registration from the Democratic Party to independent. While this switch will not affect the Democrat's 51 to 49 majority in the Senate, it will undoubtedly make a difference if Sinema runs for re-election in 2024. As an Independent, Sinema will not face a primary challenge that would weaken her in the general election. Moreover, at least one recent poll suggests that she could not defeat Congressman Reuban Gallego, a likely primary challenger. Gallego led Sinema 74 to 16 points. Sinema's switch to an Independent may be a reasonable political tactic for preventing a primary challenge. But it is less clear that this tactic will compel Democrats to support her to avert Republicans from winning the seat.
Sinema will continue to caucus with Democrats and keep her Democratic committee assignments. Ninety percent of her votes over the last two years were with President Biden. But the other 10 percent of her votes were against critical parts of the Biden agenda. Although Republican control of the House makes it unlikely that significant parts of the Biden agenda will require Sinema's vote, Sinema's vote will be needed to confirm Biden's judicial and administrative appointees. Sinema will be motivated to validate her independence and may not be as supportive of Biden as she was. Sinema's Democratic constituents were unhappy with her voting record previous voting record and maybe even less appreciative of a more independent Sinema.
If Sinema is to keep her seat, she will have to defeat a Republican and, possibly, a Democratic challenger. According to an AARP poll, Sinema's unfavorable rating among Republicans is 54 percent, 57 percent among Democrats, and 51 percent among independents. Nate Silver, a celebrated collator of polls, noted that Sinema was not favored before and may be less favored after her switch.
Even if Sinema's switching tactic does freeze out a Democratic opponent, she will still have to defeat a Republican challenger to keep her seat. And if Democrats do not believe she can beat a Republican challenger, then a Democrat will undoubtedly also enter the race. And a theory of election voting developed to explain recent voting patterns suggests that Sinema is likely to lose. Calcification theory argues that most voters are locked into voting for either Democratic or Republicans. Even most independents prefer Democrats or Republicans; thus, elections are decided by a relatively minuscule number of independents who can be swayed one way or the other.
For example, from 2018 through 2022, about 27 percent of Arizona voters were Democrats, about 35 percent were Republicans, and about 38 percent were Independents. In 2018 the Democrat (Sinema) won 97 percent of Democratic voters; in 2020, the Democrat (Biden) won 96 percent of Democratic voters; and in 2022, the Democrat (Kelly) won 97 percent of Democratic voters. Similarly, in 2018 the Republican (McSally) won 89 percent of Republican voters; in 2020, the Republican (Trump) won 90 percent of Republican voters; and in 2022, the Republican (Masters) won 89 percent of Republican voters. In 2018 independents broke 50 to 47 percent for the Democrat (Sinema); in 2020, independents went for 53 to 47 percent for Biden, the Democrat; and in 2022, independents went 55 to 39 percent for the Democrat (Kelly).
If calcification theory holds, the Democrat seems to have the best chance of winning. Sinema's implicit threat of denying votes to the Democrats so the Republicans can win may not work. Sinema's somewhat greater approval among Republicans suggests that she would pull more votes from Republicans than Democrats. Unless Sinema can scare Democrats into supporting her or make a deal with Republicans to support a former Democrat who supported Biden over 90 percent of the time, her days as a U.S. Senator seem numbered.
Sinema will continue to caucus with Democrats and keep her Democratic committee assignments. Ninety percent of her votes over the last two years were with President Biden. But the other 10 percent of her votes were against critical parts of the Biden agenda. Although Republican control of the House makes it unlikely that significant parts of the Biden agenda will require Sinema's vote, Sinema's vote will be needed to confirm Biden's judicial and administrative appointees. Sinema will be motivated to validate her independence and may not be as supportive of Biden as she was. Sinema's Democratic constituents were unhappy with her voting record previous voting record and maybe even less appreciative of a more independent Sinema.
If Sinema is to keep her seat, she will have to defeat a Republican and, possibly, a Democratic challenger. According to an AARP poll, Sinema's unfavorable rating among Republicans is 54 percent, 57 percent among Democrats, and 51 percent among independents. Nate Silver, a celebrated collator of polls, noted that Sinema was not favored before and may be less favored after her switch.
Even if Sinema's switching tactic does freeze out a Democratic opponent, she will still have to defeat a Republican challenger to keep her seat. And if Democrats do not believe she can beat a Republican challenger, then a Democrat will undoubtedly also enter the race. And a theory of election voting developed to explain recent voting patterns suggests that Sinema is likely to lose. Calcification theory argues that most voters are locked into voting for either Democratic or Republicans. Even most independents prefer Democrats or Republicans; thus, elections are decided by a relatively minuscule number of independents who can be swayed one way or the other.
For example, from 2018 through 2022, about 27 percent of Arizona voters were Democrats, about 35 percent were Republicans, and about 38 percent were Independents. In 2018 the Democrat (Sinema) won 97 percent of Democratic voters; in 2020, the Democrat (Biden) won 96 percent of Democratic voters; and in 2022, the Democrat (Kelly) won 97 percent of Democratic voters. Similarly, in 2018 the Republican (McSally) won 89 percent of Republican voters; in 2020, the Republican (Trump) won 90 percent of Republican voters; and in 2022, the Republican (Masters) won 89 percent of Republican voters. In 2018 independents broke 50 to 47 percent for the Democrat (Sinema); in 2020, independents went for 53 to 47 percent for Biden, the Democrat; and in 2022, independents went 55 to 39 percent for the Democrat (Kelly).
If calcification theory holds, the Democrat seems to have the best chance of winning. Sinema's implicit threat of denying votes to the Democrats so the Republicans can win may not work. Sinema's somewhat greater approval among Republicans suggests that she would pull more votes from Republicans than Democrats. Unless Sinema can scare Democrats into supporting her or make a deal with Republicans to support a former Democrat who supported Biden over 90 percent of the time, her days as a U.S. Senator seem numbered.