Former Vice-President Joe Biden is leading in polls of likely 2020 contenders for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Recent claims by some women that they were discomforted by his hugs and invasions of personal space have not affected his poll standing. With Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders in first and second place, respectively, the other contenders fail to break into double digits. Most observers believe Biden’s (and Sander’s) lead is the result of name recognition.
In addition to name recognition, some observers believe that Biden’s popularity in these polls is due to his “centrist” or “establishment” positions. They think that Biden’s centrist positions are attractive to voters such as Democrats who voted for Trump and moderate Republicans disaffected from Trump. Moreover, Biden’s working-class background is attractive to working-class voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—states Trump must win to 2020.
Democrats who voted for Trump, especially working-class whites who have suffered economic dislocations, may not be as enamored of Biden as some observers believe. Biden was a part of an administration that did little to reverse the decline of the middle- and working-classes with the exception of the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care). The inability of the Obama-Biden administration to do more for the working- and middle-class was due to the opposition of Republicans like Vice-President Mike Pence.
Biden in a style reminiscent a previous era recently had nice things to say about Pence. Many Democrats who think the system is rigged against them may question Biden’s style. It is notable that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, in part, because championed populist ideas like affordable, health care for everyone.
Republicans who claimed to be disaffected with Trump voted for Democrats in 2018. But those Republicans were not primarily voting on policies advocated by Trump and the Republican Party. They were voting for checks and balances to reign in Trump. Even disaffected Republicans may feel they benefit from continued tax cuts, deregulation, and the appointment of conservative judges.
Biden does lead the other contenders in two ways. First, Biden is the only contender who has substantial foreign policy experience. Despite the intention of all the contenders to focus on domestic issues, foreign affairs will be even more critical after Trump than before. The U.S. will need to brush back Russia and China and re-build international alliances. Second, Biden has gravitas, if only due to age and appearance. Unfortunately for Biden, gravitas may not be enough to carry Biden to victory.
In addition to name recognition, some observers believe that Biden’s popularity in these polls is due to his “centrist” or “establishment” positions. They think that Biden’s centrist positions are attractive to voters such as Democrats who voted for Trump and moderate Republicans disaffected from Trump. Moreover, Biden’s working-class background is attractive to working-class voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—states Trump must win to 2020.
Democrats who voted for Trump, especially working-class whites who have suffered economic dislocations, may not be as enamored of Biden as some observers believe. Biden was a part of an administration that did little to reverse the decline of the middle- and working-classes with the exception of the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care). The inability of the Obama-Biden administration to do more for the working- and middle-class was due to the opposition of Republicans like Vice-President Mike Pence.
Biden in a style reminiscent a previous era recently had nice things to say about Pence. Many Democrats who think the system is rigged against them may question Biden’s style. It is notable that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, in part, because championed populist ideas like affordable, health care for everyone.
Republicans who claimed to be disaffected with Trump voted for Democrats in 2018. But those Republicans were not primarily voting on policies advocated by Trump and the Republican Party. They were voting for checks and balances to reign in Trump. Even disaffected Republicans may feel they benefit from continued tax cuts, deregulation, and the appointment of conservative judges.
Biden does lead the other contenders in two ways. First, Biden is the only contender who has substantial foreign policy experience. Despite the intention of all the contenders to focus on domestic issues, foreign affairs will be even more critical after Trump than before. The U.S. will need to brush back Russia and China and re-build international alliances. Second, Biden has gravitas, if only due to age and appearance. Unfortunately for Biden, gravitas may not be enough to carry Biden to victory.
New York Times. Burns, Flegenheimer, Lee, Lerer, and Martin. Who's Running President in 2020?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/2020-presidential-candidates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/2020-presidential-candidates.html
