The House Democrats have to decide whether or not to impeach Donald Trump. Impeachment, a two-part process begins with an accusation in the House supported by 51 percent. Then the Senate judges the charge and if 67 Senators convict him, Trump would be removed. Virtually no one believes that 20 Republicans would support the 47 Democrats in removing Trump. Because it is unlikely that Trump would be removed from office even if he were impeached, the question becomes whether there are any benefits to impeachment him without removing him.
Whether to impeach Trump is a tough decision for Democrats because it pits their Constitutional duty against their fear of a political loss. The Mueller Report details Trump’s violations of law like obstruction of justice and suggests even more egregious behavior like conspiracy to defraud the nation. According to most legal and Constitutional scholars, the Constitution contemplates impeachment, rather than the judicial system, as the primary mechanism for holding the President accountable. If Democrats fail to impeach Trump, then they will fail to apply the rule of law.
Whether to impeach Trump is a tough decision for Democrats because it pits their Constitutional duty against their fear of a political loss. The Mueller Report details Trump’s violations of law like obstruction of justice and suggests even more egregious behavior like conspiracy to defraud the nation. According to most legal and Constitutional scholars, the Constitution contemplates impeachment, rather than the judicial system, as the primary mechanism for holding the President accountable. If Democrats fail to impeach Trump, then they will fail to apply the rule of law.
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But impeaching Trump could inflame his base--and other sympathizers--and propel him to a second term. The Democrats most fearful of an impeachment backfire refer to the impeachment of Bill Clinton. These Democrats note that when House Republicans impeached Bill Clinton, his favorable poll numbers increased. They fail to remember that (1) most voters did not support the impeachment of a President for what they considered to be a private sex act; (2) Bill Clinton’s favorable poll numbers did decrease as displeasure over the impeachment decreased; and (3) Republicans were rewarded with a Presidential victory and majorities in the House and Senate.
Besides the downside risk of impeaching Trump, there are also some significant benefits. Impeaching Trump will benefit Democratic messaging. Trump and his supporters claim that he has been exonerated. If Democrats don’t accuse him, then Democrats implicitly support Trump’s claim that he has been exonerated. Of course, Democrats will quote the Mueller Report, which says Trump was not exonerated. Nonetheless, there is a glaring inconsistency in the failure to judge someone who has done wrong. Democrats will undoubtedly need effective messaging to dislodge a sitting President with a strong economy.
Now Democrats seem to be adopting an intermediate position of substituting oversight hearings for a full impeachment hearing. They assert rightly that information can be developed in either format. However, Trump and his supporters will undoubtedly claim that Democrats have failed to “get him” for conspiring with Russia; they are simply trying to “get him” on something else with additional investigations. Also, oversight hearings suffer from the difficulty in providing a coherent narrative of wrongdoing. Presenting a cohesive and persuasive story should be the primary purpose of a Trump impeachment hearing.
Finally, Democrats need to do something that will curb Trump’s lawlessness. In the brief period since the Mueller Report was released, Trump has threatened to “go after” those who were involved in appointing a Special Prosecutor and investigating Trump. Impeachment can be seen as a brushback pitch to help keep Trump within reasonable political bounds. Without some kind of limits, we cannot be sure of what extra-Constitutional behavior Trump may engage in. So far, Trump has ignored the Constitutional prohibition against emoluments and prescription for all spending bills to originate in the House. Without impeachment, there is no reason to expect Trump to operate within reasonable political bounds. It may not be the best tool to curb Trump, but it is the only tool available to Democrats.
Besides the downside risk of impeaching Trump, there are also some significant benefits. Impeaching Trump will benefit Democratic messaging. Trump and his supporters claim that he has been exonerated. If Democrats don’t accuse him, then Democrats implicitly support Trump’s claim that he has been exonerated. Of course, Democrats will quote the Mueller Report, which says Trump was not exonerated. Nonetheless, there is a glaring inconsistency in the failure to judge someone who has done wrong. Democrats will undoubtedly need effective messaging to dislodge a sitting President with a strong economy.
Now Democrats seem to be adopting an intermediate position of substituting oversight hearings for a full impeachment hearing. They assert rightly that information can be developed in either format. However, Trump and his supporters will undoubtedly claim that Democrats have failed to “get him” for conspiring with Russia; they are simply trying to “get him” on something else with additional investigations. Also, oversight hearings suffer from the difficulty in providing a coherent narrative of wrongdoing. Presenting a cohesive and persuasive story should be the primary purpose of a Trump impeachment hearing.
Finally, Democrats need to do something that will curb Trump’s lawlessness. In the brief period since the Mueller Report was released, Trump has threatened to “go after” those who were involved in appointing a Special Prosecutor and investigating Trump. Impeachment can be seen as a brushback pitch to help keep Trump within reasonable political bounds. Without some kind of limits, we cannot be sure of what extra-Constitutional behavior Trump may engage in. So far, Trump has ignored the Constitutional prohibition against emoluments and prescription for all spending bills to originate in the House. Without impeachment, there is no reason to expect Trump to operate within reasonable political bounds. It may not be the best tool to curb Trump, but it is the only tool available to Democrats.
The New York Times. Jamelle Bouie. The Lure of Impeachment.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/22/opinion/impeachment-politics-congress.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/22/opinion/impeachment-politics-congress.html
Lawfare. Quinta Jurecic. Obstruction of Justice in the Mueller Report: A Heat Map
https://www.lawfareblog.com/obstruction-justice-mueller-report-heat-map
https://www.lawfareblog.com/obstruction-justice-mueller-report-heat-map
USA Today. Kurt Bardella. What Would Republicans Do With a Mueller Report? Build an Impeachment Case
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/04/22/mueller-report-subpoenas-republicans-trump-obama-impeachment-column/3529799002/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/04/22/mueller-report-subpoenas-republicans-trump-obama-impeachment-column/3529799002/
