Senator Mitch McConnell Political success is often tied to future events. In a democracy political success often depends on being able to anticipate future events and take actions that shape and mold those events. Historically, politicians as diverse as George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson have been celebrated as much for their ability to foresee the effect of their actions as for their ability to effectuate those acts. Johnson, for example, in 1957, recognized the growing political influence of the African-American community in Northern urban areas. In part, as a result of this, Johnson saw the advantages of sponsoring and working to pass the first civil rights legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1875. (The 1957 voting rights law was followed by another more expansive civil rights law in 1964, a continuation of a bill originally proposed by John F. Kennedy.)
Despite the importance of being able to anticipate future events that most pundits assign to political success, few Republican leaders demonstrate their predictive capacity. Mitch McConnell is recognized for his political acumen. He foresaw the long term benefit of being able to stymie Obama and much of the Democratic agenda, including refusing to bring Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court, Merritt Garland, up for a vote. Also, Trump and the Republicans passed significant tax legislation. The tax law, however, was so slanted in favor of corporations and the wealthy, it has not proven very popular with either Democrats or Republicans. These victories, did not show political anticipation. Instead, they demonstrated an apparatchik’s ability to twist rules for his party’s advantage.
Despite the importance of being able to anticipate future events that most pundits assign to political success, few Republican leaders demonstrate their predictive capacity. Mitch McConnell is recognized for his political acumen. He foresaw the long term benefit of being able to stymie Obama and much of the Democratic agenda, including refusing to bring Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court, Merritt Garland, up for a vote. Also, Trump and the Republicans passed significant tax legislation. The tax law, however, was so slanted in favor of corporations and the wealthy, it has not proven very popular with either Democrats or Republicans. These victories, did not show political anticipation. Instead, they demonstrated an apparatchik’s ability to twist rules for his party’s advantage.
The U.S. economy has been so strong; it has provided an illusion of political victory. While a strong economy has offset many other deficiencies of the Trump administration, such as increasingly high insurance rates and continuing stagnant wages, it may not last. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on key U.S. trading partners and a looming trade war could undermine the strong economy.
Most economists predict a weakening of the economy after 2019, fueled in part by the increasing debt caused by massive tax cuts. One impact of the increased debt is that the U.S. government will be unable to spend money in an attempt to mitigate the weakening economy. And if the cuts to social programs to pay for the tax cuts materialize, there will be nothing to soften the blow of weakened economy in the lives of American families. Republicans do not seem able to predict these future economic disruptions or have plans to counter them.
GOP leaders also were not able to anticipate the path of Robert Mueller’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s conspiracy with the Russian government. No sooner had Trump been inaugurated than high-level members of his campaign and members of his administration were reported to have been in constant communication with Russian intelligence officers during the campaign. Trump, of course, denied these reports. By the spring of 2017, a privately authorized report, “the Steel Dossier,” was being read and investigated by the media. After the Director of the FBI, James Comey, testified before Congress that the Trump campaign was under investigation he was fired. After Attorney General Jeff Session recused himself because he had been a Trump campaign official, Deputy Attorney Rod Rosenstein, appointed Robert Mueller as a Special Counsel to investigate Russian meddling in the election and other related issues.
By July 13, 2017, Rosenstein announced the indictments of 32 people involved in the conspiracy, including 12 Russian military intelligence officers who had participated in the hack of the Democratic National Committee’s computers. By the end of August 2018, five of the indicted individuals had been convicted including Trump’s Campaign Manager, Paul Manafort, Deputy Campaign Manager, Rick Gates, National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, one of his campaign’s foreign policy advisors, George Papadopoulos, his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
Most economists predict a weakening of the economy after 2019, fueled in part by the increasing debt caused by massive tax cuts. One impact of the increased debt is that the U.S. government will be unable to spend money in an attempt to mitigate the weakening economy. And if the cuts to social programs to pay for the tax cuts materialize, there will be nothing to soften the blow of weakened economy in the lives of American families. Republicans do not seem able to predict these future economic disruptions or have plans to counter them.
GOP leaders also were not able to anticipate the path of Robert Mueller’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s conspiracy with the Russian government. No sooner had Trump been inaugurated than high-level members of his campaign and members of his administration were reported to have been in constant communication with Russian intelligence officers during the campaign. Trump, of course, denied these reports. By the spring of 2017, a privately authorized report, “the Steel Dossier,” was being read and investigated by the media. After the Director of the FBI, James Comey, testified before Congress that the Trump campaign was under investigation he was fired. After Attorney General Jeff Session recused himself because he had been a Trump campaign official, Deputy Attorney Rod Rosenstein, appointed Robert Mueller as a Special Counsel to investigate Russian meddling in the election and other related issues.
By July 13, 2017, Rosenstein announced the indictments of 32 people involved in the conspiracy, including 12 Russian military intelligence officers who had participated in the hack of the Democratic National Committee’s computers. By the end of August 2018, five of the indicted individuals had been convicted including Trump’s Campaign Manager, Paul Manafort, Deputy Campaign Manager, Rick Gates, National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, one of his campaign’s foreign policy advisors, George Papadopoulos, his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
Because political success in a democracy depends on being able to anticipate future events, the inability of Republicans to understand the course of Mueller’s investigation calls into question their political acumen. The convictions of four of his campaign officials and personal lawyer, the immunity granted to his friend and protector, magazine publisher, David Pecker and his chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, and White House Counsel, Don McGahn’s willingness to respond to Mueller’s questions are signaling the increasing likelihood of Trump’s demise.
Even if Trump is not indicted for conspiracy or removed from the Presidency through the impeachment process, his continuing legal problems and investigations will undermine his ability to govern. Already Trump is spending more time brooding about the Mueller’s impending actions than he is reviewing policies or furthering Republican policies. Although tax cuts, deregulation, and installing right-wing federal judges may be temporarily appear to conservative progress, Republican policies, foreign diplomacy, and the economy certainly need attention.
Republican politicians seem to believe that they can effectively govern the U.S. without the support of 60% of its most productive and forward-looking citizens. The Republican tax legislation, for example, has limited in how much Americans in seven blue states can deduct state property taxes from federal taxes. Republicans are unwilling to articulate their vision of the future more than to romanticize the virtues of the 1950s.
Anticipating future events allows a politician to identify what his constituents need or want before an opponent can appeal to a voter. In a democracy, impacting consequences is the key to political success. Republicans are not trying to anticipate future events and how they’ll help or hurt Americans? They apparently believe they can be successful without taking into account how they help or hurt voters. Why are they so sanguine about their impact on voters? What is their audacity of hope? It can only be their expectation that Trump will flip the US from being a democratic state to being an authoritarian state.
Even if Trump is not indicted for conspiracy or removed from the Presidency through the impeachment process, his continuing legal problems and investigations will undermine his ability to govern. Already Trump is spending more time brooding about the Mueller’s impending actions than he is reviewing policies or furthering Republican policies. Although tax cuts, deregulation, and installing right-wing federal judges may be temporarily appear to conservative progress, Republican policies, foreign diplomacy, and the economy certainly need attention.
Republican politicians seem to believe that they can effectively govern the U.S. without the support of 60% of its most productive and forward-looking citizens. The Republican tax legislation, for example, has limited in how much Americans in seven blue states can deduct state property taxes from federal taxes. Republicans are unwilling to articulate their vision of the future more than to romanticize the virtues of the 1950s.
Anticipating future events allows a politician to identify what his constituents need or want before an opponent can appeal to a voter. In a democracy, impacting consequences is the key to political success. Republicans are not trying to anticipate future events and how they’ll help or hurt Americans? They apparently believe they can be successful without taking into account how they help or hurt voters. Why are they so sanguine about their impact on voters? What is their audacity of hope? It can only be their expectation that Trump will flip the US from being a democratic state to being an authoritarian state.