The Climb Back for Democrats

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Democrats are in a deep, dark hole and face a long climb out.  Before they can start to climb out, however, they will have to stop digging.  Here are some of the obstacles Democrats face.

• Clearly, the leading issue identified by Progressives as affecting political outcomes is “money in politics.”  Because of both the Citizens v. United Supreme Court decision and the notoriety of conservative donors such as the Koch Brothers, Sheldon Adelson, and numerous others, money is considered the root cause of recent right-wing electoral victories.  Even if true, and certainly money does underlie elector success, Not only will Democrats face an uphill battle because the Republicans have more money, but they can expect an acceleration of the attack on unions, trial lawyers, and other sources of Democratic funding.

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• Democrats are structurally disadvantaged in a contest to win the House of Representatives because Republicans were able to gerrymander or create the boundaries for 193 out of the 218 Congressional districts needed to control the House.  That is, Republicans carved up these districts, using sophisticated mapping technology, in such a way that Republican voters predominated and virtually ensured that Republican candidates would win election.  Besides the obvious need for a majority in the House to pass any federal legislation, spending and impeachment bills must originate in the House.

• Voting suppression tactics used by the Republican Party, involves restricting registration and eliminating voting places for voters likely to vote Democratic such as minorities, the young, the old, and working class.  The most outrageous of these tactics, Operation Crosscheck, involves comparing names across state lines and eliminating voters from the rolls, who have the same name and seem to be Democratic leaning voters.  This tactic is horrendous because the sharing many voters obviously share the same name and being registered in different states is neither a crime nor should preclude voting in one state.  Voting suppression will remain a barrier to Democrats winning both State and federal elections, although various groups have been formed to fight the most stringent forms of suppression in the courts.   Despite Democratic resistance to limit voting rights in the courts, state governments have tremendous influence over the laws and practices affecting how voting is conducted.  In the near term, how far Republicans will go be able to go in suppressing the votes of Democrats depends, in part, on how much pushback there is from the courts. 

 

• After successfully interfering in the 2016 elections, it is possible that Russia and other countries will also attempt to influence the outcome of U.S. elections.  Despite the rather optimistic view that this interference did not influence the outcome of the election, the continued use of these techniques by intelligence agencies, especially the Russians, suggest that they may be effective.  It is difficult to believe that a bureaucratic agency would devote personnel and resources to an effort and either fail to assess its success or continue a failed effort.  If Democratic candidates hold the promise of governing more effectively than Republican candidates, it is very likely that Russia will work to prevent the Democrats from winning.  After all, it is Republican officials who have shown the lack of principles and morality in upholding the Constitution supporting the U.S. against foreign interference in its elections.

 

• The belief by Democrats that the Main Stream Media (MSM) are allies in vanquishing Republicans because Democrats tell the truth while Republicans lie, is an outdated belief.   The MSM will not pull Democratic chestnuts out of the fire; media outlets will continue to become more bifurcated.  Republican leaning media will continue to perpetuate “alternative” facts while MSM, nominally Democratic media, will continue to undercut Democrats by echoing Republican “alternative” facts as they try to maintain the fiction that they are seeking the truth.  In effect, the MSM will continue to blunt the bad behavior of Republicans by pushing false equivalence of both parties.  Democrats must develop ways to prevent their message from being filtered by the MSM.

 

• Although it is unlikely that Democrats will again be subject to the egregious acts perpetrated by FBI Director James Comey against Hillary Clinton, the political power amassed by the Republicans means that it is unlikely Democrats will catch a break in any situation that is a close call.  Administrative agencies, State governments, and even the courts are much more likely to make decisions favoring Republicans than Democrats.  For example, Democrats cannot expect an agency about to release a report that could be harmful to them to delay that report until after an election or an important vote.  Similarly, State governments and the courts will perceive which side their bread is buttered on and act accordingly.  Democrats will have to expect this bias and be prepared to act accordingly.

 

• The Democratic National Committee and elected Democratic officials have not yet overcome their confusion about the new rules of the political game being played by the Republicans.  Republicans are totally after power and willing, or even eager, to adopt authoritarianism as a way of capturing power.  Voter suppression, destruction of labor union, use of deception, and even collusion with Russia, are all being considered appropriate means of defeating Democrats.  Until Democrats stop using tactics of a bygone and more genteel era, and recognize that a democratic U.S. is at stake, it cannot lead the fight against a Republican Party that is tilting towards totalitarianism.

The major advantage Democrats now have is that they are in opposition to a party led by an erratic individual with a borderline personality disorder.  And, that may not be enough.  Regardless of the psychological problems that may afflict Donald Trump, he has shown himself capable of functioning, even if not at a high level.  Historically, figures who are bullies and have been able to create havoc, can overthrow a Democratic society.   To effectively resist Trump, solutions to the problems cited above will have to be found.  Unless solutions to these problems are found, Democrats will be unable to win elections and until they win elections, they will not have the political power to eradicate these problems.