It has become an article of faith, either lamented or celebrated, to observe that Trump’s supporters are irreversibly bound to him. No matter what Trump does, doesn’t do, or has done, most people marvel at how loyal his voters remain. His support remains nationally at about 40 percent approval, with some ups and downs, and at about a steadfast 88 percent approval among Republicans.
For most of 18 or so months that Trump has been in office, prognosticators have found one sign or another that his supporters are finally breaking away. After Trump announced that the neo-Nazis marching in Charlottesville were as good as the those protesting them, some observers predicted Trump’s supporters would break away. They didn’t. When Democrats running for office in Georgia, Virginia, and Alabama showed surprising electoral strength, pundits again predicted Trump’s eroding strength. But Trump’s support bounced back. Indeed, some critics claimed Democratic voters lost heart. By the end of 2017 as the White House seemed in a state of perpetual chaos and Republican politicians announced their early retirement, onlookers once again predicted the awakening of Trump voters. But alas, his supporters did not retreat.
Some commentators are once again predicting the erosion of support for Trump following the quickening pace of a tangible investigation by Robert Mueller; the burgeoning legal fallout of Trump’s sexual escapades; the scenes as horrific as those occurring at foreign concentration camps of kids being torn from their parents; and images of a U.S. President kowtowing to a Russian President at Helsinki. Other analysts warn us that Trump supporters will not leave him. Trump lovers, like all lovers, have emotional as well as logical reasons for their devotion.
This is not the only time in history some people have marveled at the illogical persistence or stubbornness of supporters. During WWII the German population suffered severe bombing from the Allies. Yet, many Germans did not quiver nor lose morale and commitment. After the war social scientists, flabbergasted at the steadfastness of the German population, studied how the severity of bombings affected morale. They found that the impact of bombing had to be measured in terms of what psychologically affected the population rather than the physical extent of bombing. Germans’ resolve dropped when civil services (e.g., lighting, sanitation, transportation) were disrupted.
For most of 18 or so months that Trump has been in office, prognosticators have found one sign or another that his supporters are finally breaking away. After Trump announced that the neo-Nazis marching in Charlottesville were as good as the those protesting them, some observers predicted Trump’s supporters would break away. They didn’t. When Democrats running for office in Georgia, Virginia, and Alabama showed surprising electoral strength, pundits again predicted Trump’s eroding strength. But Trump’s support bounced back. Indeed, some critics claimed Democratic voters lost heart. By the end of 2017 as the White House seemed in a state of perpetual chaos and Republican politicians announced their early retirement, onlookers once again predicted the awakening of Trump voters. But alas, his supporters did not retreat.
Some commentators are once again predicting the erosion of support for Trump following the quickening pace of a tangible investigation by Robert Mueller; the burgeoning legal fallout of Trump’s sexual escapades; the scenes as horrific as those occurring at foreign concentration camps of kids being torn from their parents; and images of a U.S. President kowtowing to a Russian President at Helsinki. Other analysts warn us that Trump supporters will not leave him. Trump lovers, like all lovers, have emotional as well as logical reasons for their devotion.
This is not the only time in history some people have marveled at the illogical persistence or stubbornness of supporters. During WWII the German population suffered severe bombing from the Allies. Yet, many Germans did not quiver nor lose morale and commitment. After the war social scientists, flabbergasted at the steadfastness of the German population, studied how the severity of bombings affected morale. They found that the impact of bombing had to be measured in terms of what psychologically affected the population rather than the physical extent of bombing. Germans’ resolve dropped when civil services (e.g., lighting, sanitation, transportation) were disrupted.
Berlin after allied bombing
If the same logic applies to Trump voters, then it is unlikely that they will reject him unless his actions disrupt their lives. And the tariff war Trump started may just be the irrational act that is needed. Farmers and blue-collar workers in the mid-West are already being hurt by the war. More of the effects of the tariffs will be felt shortly as the Europeans, Chinese, Canadians, and others retaliate against U.S. goods. U.S. consumers will pay for Trump’s tariffs and Trump support may began to erode.
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