The first year of a Presidency usually teaches us something about what to expect in the following years. In the first year of the Trump Presidency we confirmed many of the things we previously only suspected about Trump. We also confirmed some things about the Republican establishment (i.e., elected officials with strong ties to large donors) and the Republican base (i.e., the rank and file voters). More than other recent administrations, Trump’s ability to accomplish his agenda relies on the extent to which these two factions of the GOP agree on goals. Trump’s ascension to the head of the party resulted in large part from his ability to bond the growing fissure between the establishment and the base. The fissure between these factions deepened as the GOP establishment and its donors advocated for policy prescriptions that failed to address the issues facing the base. Trump’s particular genius lay in using empty promises and lies to weld these two factions together. Trump’s continued control of the GOP will rest on his ability to maintain a bond these two factions. When Trump and the GOP factions demonstrated unity, they succeeded; when their underlying divisions surfaced, they failed.
Many became aware of Donald Trump’s racism following Charlottesville. The picture of a U.S. President supporting armed neo-Nazis and white supremacists mimicking Hitler’s Nazis at a 1939 Nuremburg rally shocked the GOP establishment and the world. Trump initially shocked the world by equating the neo-Nazis to those protesting them. To assuage the impact of Trump’s inequality the Republican Congress, with Democrats, passed a joint resolution condemning the hate groups represented in Charlottesville. Trump, however, refusing to abandon his base, attached a statement when he signed the joint resolution that avoided disapproval of hate groups. (See Gregory Korte’s article in USA Today [https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/15/faced-up-or-down-choice-charlottesville-resolution-trump-chooses-third-option/671478001/]). This difference between Trump and the establishment over such a galvanizing issue as a resurgence of Nazism in the U.S. was papered over by many establishment Republicans who refused to acknowledge or recognize that the GOP base now included neo-Nazi elements.
The Mueller investigation of a possible conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government wound its way from questions to evidence of wrongdoing. At the beginning of the probe, media cited the GOP establishment in claiming Trump administration designees had few meetings with Russians. As the probe continued, the number of reported meetings between Trump’s inner circle and Russian officials, current or former intelligence officers, and oligarchs increased. As the probe continued, administration officials claimed the purpose of these meetings was to exchange greetings, then White House officials claimed the meetings were to re-establish adoption procedures, and finally, the administration admitted the meetings were held “to see” what opposition research the Russians might provide them about Hillary Clinton. In the beginning the GOP establishment adamantly cited the same claims as the White House sources, praised the selection of Robert Mueller as Special Prosecutor, and confidently predicted the President’s exoneration. After the Mueller investigation obtained indictments of four campaign and administration officials and convictions of two of them, the GOP establishment shamefully attacked Mueller and his FBI investigators for having privately expressed anti-Trump sentiments. Some members of the establishment have even called for a purge of FBI and Department of Justice officials. As the Mueller investigation moves into 2018, sources familiar with the investigation predict an increased tempo of indictments and convictions and the GOP establishment moving into full battle mode. Despite these attacks on Mueller’s investigation, by some of the GOP establishment and most of the right wing media, enough of the GOP establishment continue to support the investigation. And, so farm, Trump has been prevented from impeding Mueller’s investigation.
The nomination of Roy Moore for a Senate seat from Alabama shows how contentiousness between the GOP establishment and base can undermine Trump’s leadership. In part, because of allegations of pedophilia lodged against Roy Moore, the GOP establishment was initially dead set against his election to the Senate. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader, even threatened to launch a formal investigation if he were elected. Trump, however, expressing fear that he would lose a Senate seat and weaken chances of passing his agenda if he did not support Moore, vocally endorsed him. The dispute between Trump and the GOP establishment was reflected in the base. Some of the base followed Trump’s lead and voted for the accused child molester, while others followed some key figures in the GOP establishment and voted Democratic contender. Many others stayed home and did not vote. The discomfort felt by many in the GOP establishment with supporting Moore allowed the first Democrat to win election to the Senate from Alabama in 25 years.
Other events, like de-constructing or hollowing out U.S. government agencies, rolling back regulations that protect the public, and passing massive tax cuts for corporations and the rich have not aroused the GOP factions. In part, de-construction has not highlighted the split between factions because the media has not reported on it. With the support of both GOP factions, Trump has been successful in achieving the goals of the Republican establishment while mollifying the concerns of the base with lies. Trump has been successful in achieving the goals of the Republican establishment and mollifying the concerns of the base. Trump and the GOP establishment enacted the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, in part, because on the one hand it was written behind closed doors away from the kind of media reporting that might have caused the GOP base to question it. On the other hand, Trump was able to habitually and unfailingly lie about the benefits of the bill for the GOP base and thus use their support to brow beat the GOP establishment. And, of course, GOP donors also pressured the establishment to craft a bill that disadvantaged the base and favored the super-rich.
Although Trump says he wants to undo Obamacare and pass an infrastructure bill in 2018, he may not be able to accomplish this agenda. The Republican establishment is divided and neither Mitch McConnell nor Paul Ryan want to risk failing to repeal Obamacare again. Ryan does want to cut Medicaid and other social programs, the base, generally, does not favor cutting these programs because so many of them depend on them. Despite the popularity of infrastructure improvements, divisions among the establishment could derail infrastructure legislation.
As a result of Trump’s broken promises to the base and his adherence to the agenda of the establishment, Trump has become the party and the party has become Trump.
The Mueller investigation of a possible conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government wound its way from questions to evidence of wrongdoing. At the beginning of the probe, media cited the GOP establishment in claiming Trump administration designees had few meetings with Russians. As the probe continued, the number of reported meetings between Trump’s inner circle and Russian officials, current or former intelligence officers, and oligarchs increased. As the probe continued, administration officials claimed the purpose of these meetings was to exchange greetings, then White House officials claimed the meetings were to re-establish adoption procedures, and finally, the administration admitted the meetings were held “to see” what opposition research the Russians might provide them about Hillary Clinton. In the beginning the GOP establishment adamantly cited the same claims as the White House sources, praised the selection of Robert Mueller as Special Prosecutor, and confidently predicted the President’s exoneration. After the Mueller investigation obtained indictments of four campaign and administration officials and convictions of two of them, the GOP establishment shamefully attacked Mueller and his FBI investigators for having privately expressed anti-Trump sentiments. Some members of the establishment have even called for a purge of FBI and Department of Justice officials. As the Mueller investigation moves into 2018, sources familiar with the investigation predict an increased tempo of indictments and convictions and the GOP establishment moving into full battle mode. Despite these attacks on Mueller’s investigation, by some of the GOP establishment and most of the right wing media, enough of the GOP establishment continue to support the investigation. And, so farm, Trump has been prevented from impeding Mueller’s investigation.
The nomination of Roy Moore for a Senate seat from Alabama shows how contentiousness between the GOP establishment and base can undermine Trump’s leadership. In part, because of allegations of pedophilia lodged against Roy Moore, the GOP establishment was initially dead set against his election to the Senate. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader, even threatened to launch a formal investigation if he were elected. Trump, however, expressing fear that he would lose a Senate seat and weaken chances of passing his agenda if he did not support Moore, vocally endorsed him. The dispute between Trump and the GOP establishment was reflected in the base. Some of the base followed Trump’s lead and voted for the accused child molester, while others followed some key figures in the GOP establishment and voted Democratic contender. Many others stayed home and did not vote. The discomfort felt by many in the GOP establishment with supporting Moore allowed the first Democrat to win election to the Senate from Alabama in 25 years.
Other events, like de-constructing or hollowing out U.S. government agencies, rolling back regulations that protect the public, and passing massive tax cuts for corporations and the rich have not aroused the GOP factions. In part, de-construction has not highlighted the split between factions because the media has not reported on it. With the support of both GOP factions, Trump has been successful in achieving the goals of the Republican establishment while mollifying the concerns of the base with lies. Trump has been successful in achieving the goals of the Republican establishment and mollifying the concerns of the base. Trump and the GOP establishment enacted the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, in part, because on the one hand it was written behind closed doors away from the kind of media reporting that might have caused the GOP base to question it. On the other hand, Trump was able to habitually and unfailingly lie about the benefits of the bill for the GOP base and thus use their support to brow beat the GOP establishment. And, of course, GOP donors also pressured the establishment to craft a bill that disadvantaged the base and favored the super-rich.
Although Trump says he wants to undo Obamacare and pass an infrastructure bill in 2018, he may not be able to accomplish this agenda. The Republican establishment is divided and neither Mitch McConnell nor Paul Ryan want to risk failing to repeal Obamacare again. Ryan does want to cut Medicaid and other social programs, the base, generally, does not favor cutting these programs because so many of them depend on them. Despite the popularity of infrastructure improvements, divisions among the establishment could derail infrastructure legislation.
As a result of Trump’s broken promises to the base and his adherence to the agenda of the establishment, Trump has become the party and the party has become Trump.
Charlottesville
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/the-hidden-meaning-of-trumps-charlottesville-remarks/536688/
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/15/16153238/5-moments-trump-charlottesville-press-conference
Tax Cuts and Job Act
http://issuesconnect.com/issues-to-connect/what-the-gop-tax-plan-means
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/13/analysis-trump-betting-tax-cuts-make-him-popular-history-shows-thats-no-guarantee/848084001/
Roy Moore
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/us/politics/trump-roy-moore-mcconnell-alabama-senate.html?_r=0
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/05/us/politics/trump-moore-republicans-chaos.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/the-hidden-meaning-of-trumps-charlottesville-remarks/536688/
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/15/16153238/5-moments-trump-charlottesville-press-conference
Tax Cuts and Job Act
http://issuesconnect.com/issues-to-connect/what-the-gop-tax-plan-means
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/13/analysis-trump-betting-tax-cuts-make-him-popular-history-shows-thats-no-guarantee/848084001/
Roy Moore
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/us/politics/trump-roy-moore-mcconnell-alabama-senate.html?_r=0
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/05/us/politics/trump-moore-republicans-chaos.html