Whether voters stick with Donald Trump in 2020 depends, in part, on why they voted for Trump in 2016. In 2016 Trump focused his campaign on white blue-collar workers in the rust-belt, farm-belt, and rural areas of the country. And Trump captured just enough of these voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Presidency.
Since his election, Trump has not pushed policies that would help his supporters. Trump’s tax and trade policies have either neglected or harmed voters in the states responsible for his victory. His tax policy, for example, has benefited large corporations, but only marginally helped economic and wage growth. And Trump’s tariff war with China has already been disastrous for farmers and promises to affect even more massive swathes of the Midwest.
Trump has continued to carefully play to these same voters by using rhetoric and symbolism to proclaim his allegiance to them. And despite Trump’s constant declarations that “his” economy is doing better than the U.S. economy has ever has done, there are two U.S. economies. One economy, on the coasts, is flourishing; the other in “Trump country” has not recovered from the double whammy of de-industrialization and the fiscal crisis of 2008.
Trump recognized the stresses many blue-collar workers experienced because of the dual economy. It now seems almost forgotten, but he ran to the left of Hillary. He promised to fix underemployment and wage stagnation. He promised to bring jobs back, not just from off-shore, but from the pit of history. And these areas have seen some increase in blue-collar. The economic recovery that started under Barack Obama was late in reaching these deindustrialized; Trump has received credit for it. Also, most of these jobs pay less than the jobs that were lost, but they give Trump something to herald.
Still, the 2018 election results did not yield a Democratic sweep in places like Youngstown, Ohio, although the statewide Democratic slate won. But Democrats were able to hold their own, unlike 2016 when Trump made a clean sweep of the former steel town. And Democrats have not yet made a concerted effort or spent millions of dollars on advertising to remind voters of Trump’s failed promises.
Besides Trump’s focus on economic issues, he also encourages racism and misogyny through symbols and language. He has made clear his disdain for people of color, especially when they seek asylum or entry to this country, legally or illegally. Indeed, some of Trump’s supporters stand with him because of his racism and misogyny; their dislike of immigration gives them a reason for sticking with Trump.
But racism is not the only reason Trump received the votes. These voters will undoubtedly stick with him. It is not certain that those voters who took a chance on Trump in 2016 will stick with him in 2020 given his failure to better their lives or keep the promises he made to try to better their lives. If the Democratic candidate addresses some of the economic concerns these voters have, then they will not stick with Trump. If, however, racism is the underlying reason why blue-collar whites voted for Trump, then Democrats must drive more of their base to the polls to win.
Since his election, Trump has not pushed policies that would help his supporters. Trump’s tax and trade policies have either neglected or harmed voters in the states responsible for his victory. His tax policy, for example, has benefited large corporations, but only marginally helped economic and wage growth. And Trump’s tariff war with China has already been disastrous for farmers and promises to affect even more massive swathes of the Midwest.
Trump has continued to carefully play to these same voters by using rhetoric and symbolism to proclaim his allegiance to them. And despite Trump’s constant declarations that “his” economy is doing better than the U.S. economy has ever has done, there are two U.S. economies. One economy, on the coasts, is flourishing; the other in “Trump country” has not recovered from the double whammy of de-industrialization and the fiscal crisis of 2008.
Trump recognized the stresses many blue-collar workers experienced because of the dual economy. It now seems almost forgotten, but he ran to the left of Hillary. He promised to fix underemployment and wage stagnation. He promised to bring jobs back, not just from off-shore, but from the pit of history. And these areas have seen some increase in blue-collar. The economic recovery that started under Barack Obama was late in reaching these deindustrialized; Trump has received credit for it. Also, most of these jobs pay less than the jobs that were lost, but they give Trump something to herald.
Still, the 2018 election results did not yield a Democratic sweep in places like Youngstown, Ohio, although the statewide Democratic slate won. But Democrats were able to hold their own, unlike 2016 when Trump made a clean sweep of the former steel town. And Democrats have not yet made a concerted effort or spent millions of dollars on advertising to remind voters of Trump’s failed promises.
Besides Trump’s focus on economic issues, he also encourages racism and misogyny through symbols and language. He has made clear his disdain for people of color, especially when they seek asylum or entry to this country, legally or illegally. Indeed, some of Trump’s supporters stand with him because of his racism and misogyny; their dislike of immigration gives them a reason for sticking with Trump.
But racism is not the only reason Trump received the votes. These voters will undoubtedly stick with him. It is not certain that those voters who took a chance on Trump in 2016 will stick with him in 2020 given his failure to better their lives or keep the promises he made to try to better their lives. If the Democratic candidate addresses some of the economic concerns these voters have, then they will not stick with Trump. If, however, racism is the underlying reason why blue-collar whites voted for Trump, then Democrats must drive more of their base to the polls to win.
Washiington Post. Heather Long. The Alarming Statistics That Show the U.S. Economy Isn't As Good As It Seems.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/25/the-alarming-statistics-that-show-the-u-s-economy-isnt-as-good-as-it-seems/?utm_term=.5625cd56cce8
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/25/the-alarming-statistics-that-show-the-u-s-economy-isnt-as-good-as-it-seems/?utm_term=.5625cd56cce8
Brookings. Mark Muro and Jacob Whiton. Trump Counties May Be Winning a Bit More, But Their Prognosis Remains Dim
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/05/06/trump-counties-may-be-winning-a-bit-more-but-their-prognosis-remains-dim/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/05/06/trump-counties-may-be-winning-a-bit-more-but-their-prognosis-remains-dim/
