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Manafort Left With Few Options

2/14/2019

Paul Manafort exits the District Courthouse in Alexandria, Virginia, U.S. (Photographer: Zach Gibson/Bloomberg) Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/mueller-says-fbi-properly-searched-manafort-storage-unit Copyright © BloombergQuint 2018

Paul Manafort breeched his cooperation agreement with Special Counsel Robert Mueller by lying. The Main Stream Media is rightfully celebrating U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson’s finding in favor of Mueller. This finding makes it likely that Manafort, 69 years old, will die in prison unless he and Mueller reinstate the cooperation agreement or Trump pardons him.
The finding also highlights the lie Manafort told. Manafort, while serving as Trump’s campaign manager, passed detailed polling data to a Russian agent.

Still, there is no publicly acknowledged link between Trump and Russia direct enough for a Republican Senate to remove Trump.

New York Times - Sharon LaFraniere: Manafort Lied After Plea Deal, Judge Says

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/13/us/politics/manafort-mueller.html

Don't Count on Mueller - Count on Ourselves to Remove Trump From White House

2/13/2019

Robert Mueller. Alex Wong/Getty Images

An increasing number of people who have carefully observed Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigation of Russian influences in the 2016 election doubt that it will be the bombshell it was initially expected to be. William Barr, soon to be confirmed as Attorney General, has made it clear that he does not feel obliged to release Mueller’s report to him unless it contains indictable evidence of a crime. And because the Department of Justice guidance holds that a sitting President cannot be indicted, it is possible we may not learn much from Mueller.

The House Intelligence Committee is launching a new investigation of Trump’s finances and Russian ties. Those of us who believe the whole story of Trump’s role in the Russian attack has not been told hope we will find out more from this investigation.

In the end, however, removing Trump from the White House will be up to us.

The Washington Post - Clement and Zaposky: Americans View Mueller As More Credible Than Trump, But Views of His Probe are Scattered

https://wapo.st/2SybDCg

Pittsburgh Post - Gazette: Jalonick: The House Intel Committee Is Launching a New Probe of Trump's Finances and Russian Ties

https://bit.ly/2GGAeOj

Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren Both Vow to Fight; Warren Is Precise About Who and How She Will Fight

2/12/2019

In this Nov. 14, 2018, photo, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., left, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., right, talk on their phones before heading into meetings with fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her run for the Democratic Presidential nomination last Saturday, the day before Senator Amy Klobuchar. While both of these Senators are worthy of Democrats’ support, the reaction of Progressives, the Main Stream Media, and Republicans to their rollouts offer some valuable lessons for 2020 election.

Progressives were pleased that Warren promised to fight and named those who she intended to fight: “wealthy power brokers who have been waging class warfare against hardworking people for decades.” Klobuchar indicated she would fight against “invidious forces.” And while Klobuchar did list several significant policies for which she advocated, like reducing climate change, she did not call for any meaningful reforms. Warren, on the other hand, said that the game was rigged against the working class and structural changes were needed.

The Main Stream Media failed to note that Warren had called for structural change. They also failed to note the difference between where Warren and Klobuchar made their announcements. Warren made her announcement at Everett Mills, where workers struck for fair wages and safer working conditions. Klobuchar, on the other hand, chose Boom Island, connected to the mainland by bridges to symbolize Klobuchar’s ability to build bridges to Republicans. Although the Main Stream Media gushed over the symbolism of Boom Island, they seem off-put by workers who won the right to unionize.

Besides the Main Stream Media, Republicans also gushed over Klobuchar’s ability to reach out to them. Without reservation, Senate Republicans praised Klobuchar and recommended that Democrats nominate her to win the Midwest!

Republicans’ advice to nominate a bridge builder to win the states that Trump, a polarizer, won in 2016 seems somewhat unusual. Nonetheless, based on their announcements, Warren is a better communicator than Klobuchar. Warren’s announcement set out precise reasons for running for President while Klobuchar’s was filled with platitudes, but little substance. Warren seems better able to compete against a communicator of Trump’s skills than Klobuchar.

The Norman Transcript - Elana Schor: Warren Makes Presidential Bid Official

https://www.normantranscript.com/news/nation_world/warren-makes-presidential-bid-official/article_495ddf2a-a8e3-5e04-b69b-8b23d967c0c4.html

Oh, the Weather Outside Was Frightful - But the Message Not Insightful ...

2/11/2019

Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar addresses a snowy rally where she announced she is entering the race for president Sunday, Feb. 10, 2019, at Boom Island Park in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Senator Amy Klobuchar's announcement as a candidate for the Democratic nomination for President in a minor storm showed grit but did not seem well thought out. As Senator Klobuchar delivered her message of incrementalism, light and steady snow fell in the wind chill temperature of four degrees Fahrenheit. Although hand warmers and hot chocolate were available, the weather competed with her message.

Klobuchar highlighted her work of finding ways to drug prices. But she did not address what those people who cannot go to a doctor for a prescription should do. Klobuchar also championed automatic voter registration but said nothing about deliberate efforts to suppress voting by Democratic-leaning groups. And Klobuchar derided Trump's personal disparagement of the intelligence community and promised, if elected, to appreciate their efforts.

Above all Klobuchar promised to build bridges, work across the aisle, and “fight against insidious forces.” This part of her message very reminiscent of Obama’s “no red America and no blue America” and Hillary’s promise to fight without specifying who would feel her blows. Considering the outcomes associated with those messages, perhaps it was just as well that the weather distracted us from her message.

The Washington Post - Janes and Viser: Sen Amy Klobuchar, Touting Herself as Dogged Midwesterner, Announces Her Democratic Presidential Bid

https://wapo.st/2WXeWSj

They May Beg His Pardon - But Can They Trust Him?

2/8/2019

Donald Trump Jr.

From the beginning of the Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, we have wondered why Trump has not pardoned some of the most potentially egregious witnesses against him. These potential witnesses against Trump are also facing prison for having run afoul of the law. Paul Manafort has been found guilty of different financial crimes; Roger Stone has been indicted for lying and witness tampering; and Trump’s son Don, Jr. may have committed perjury.

Many legal experts argue that Trump cannot help himself by pardoning these potential witnesses. They point out that if Trump issues a pardon to influence a witness, he could be committing obstruction of justice. This may be true, but proving the charge would require an impeachment or indictment and evidence.

Also these legal experts point out that once pardoned, potential witnesses cannot refuse to testify against Trump because such testimony might incriminate them. But not all witnesses refuse to answer on the grounds of self-incrimination; some lie. Further, many experts believe that if Trump were to pardon a potential witness to prevent their testimony, the public would explode in a firestorm. The firestorm might be even higher if the potential witness was the President's son.

Nonetheless, Trump might pardon potential witnesses if he is able to pardon them with minimum risks of undesirable outcomes. One way this could happen is if Trump were defeated for re-election in 2020. After his defeat on November 3 through January 20, 2021, Trump could pardon any potential witnesses against him with minimum risk. A pardon any time sooner would be politically devastating.

Potential witnesses who remained silent could even reap a payoff if Trump is able to receive a large enough reward during his last two years in office. The most substantial impediment to potential witnesses waiting two years in jail for Trump to make good on his promise of a pardon is his near legend unreliability. Who can trust Trump?

Vox - Sean Illing: 10 Legal Experts on Why Trump Can't Pardon His Way Out of the Russia Investigation

https://www.vox.com/2017/8/29/16211784/paul-manafort-charged-guilty-trial-trump-pardon-power

Ozy.com - Sean Braswell: The Mueller Threadd: How Roger Clinton Could Set Up A Don Jr Pardon

https://www.ozy.com/opinion/the-mueller-thread-how-roger-clinton-could-set-up-a-don-jr-pardon/92439

Withdrawal from Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

2/7/2019

Aboveground Nuclear Test conducted at the Nevada Test Site on May 25, 1953; EPA.gov

One of Trump’s most outrageous lies is that he has been tougher on Russia than any other U.S. President. Many of the foreign policy actions Trump has taken either indirectly or directly benefit Russia. One example of an indirect benefit for Russia is the discord Trump has created in NATO and the western alliance.

An example of a direct benefit to Russia of Trump’s foreign policy is the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The Trump Administration says it is withdrawing from the INF because of widespread Russian violations. On its face withdrawing from the treaty that does not constrain Russia makes sense. But even with violations, the INF provided some restraints on Russia that will no longer exist.

Withdrawing the INF benefits Russia because they are now able to pursue development of the land based missiles to threaten Europe and counter China. U.S. development of land based missiles to counter China could also benefit the U.S. Nonetheless, the Trump administration does not seem to have considered how other countries are going to react to scrapping this treaty. A new arms race could develop involving Russia, China, India, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan.

At best a renewed arms race could cost trillions of dollars. Added to the cost of an arms race, climate change, and tax cuts we could be talking about real money.

Vox- Alex Ward: The US is Withdrawing From a Nuclear Arms Treaty with Russia. An Arms Race Might Be Next.

https://www.vox.com/2019/2/1/18206619/inf-treaty-usa-russia-pompeo-trump

New York Times - Sanger and Broad: U.S, Suspends Nuclear Arms Control Treaty with Russia

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/us/politics/trump-inf-nuclear-treaty.

Trump uses State of the Union Address to Threaten and Lie

2/6/2019

Anyone looking for a change in Donald Trump’s State of the Union address was disappointed. One might have expected him to make a gesture of reconciliation to Democrats because of their gains in the 2018 midterms. Instead, Trump put forward an agenda designed to please conservative Republicans. Trump promised to work for legislation that included outlawing third-trimester abortions, negotiating a favorable trade deal with China, reducing the prices U.S. consumers pay for drugs and building a wall on the southern border.

Although Trump recounted his falsified accomplishments, such as turning around the economy and making the U.S. oil independent (Obama accomplishments), he did not mention the government shutdown or climate change. Trump also failed to lay out a clear foreign policy vision; he merely touted past successes.

Democrats were most taken aback by Trump's claim that “if there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigation." Many Democrats took this as a threat to, at least, not sign off on any legislation unless the various investigations of Trump were not stopped. Possibly there was a more dangerous implication in that statement. Was Trump threatening a war? If so, Iran and Venezuela may top his list.

The New York Times - State of the Union Fact Check: What Trump Got Right and Wrong

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/us/politics/fact-check-state-of-the-union.html

Slate- Fred Kaplan: The Soulless Vision of Trump's Foreign Policy

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/state-of-the-union-foreign-policy-trump-iran-china-north-korea-russia.html

Inequality is Destroying This Country. Dems Should Run on Policies to Reduce Inequality

2/5/2019

There are at least two approaches for Democrats to win in 2020. One approach is for the Democrats to run as moderates with more civility than Trump. Advisors who are counseling this approach hope Democrats will not lose too many left leaning Democrats and can pick up enough disaffected Republicans to plug the gap. The other approach is for Democrats to run on policies that redress economic inequality, including taxing the rich. This approach promises to appeal to those who suffer from inequality, but may be so disillusioned they will not even attempt to overcome the barriers to voting.

There are two reasons Democrats should follow the second approach. First, inequality is destroying this country. A democracy cannot exist when 1 percent of the country controls 40 percent of the wealth. This inequality means that political power is also disproportionately held. And this unequal political power means that shortly, other laws, such as inheritance laws, will further shift economic and political power to the top one percent.

Second, gaining the support of those who have suffered the most from inequality is a safer bet than hoping Republicans elevate civility above their taxes. It is the approach that Trump used to win de-industrialized areas in the Midwest. But, despite the booming macro indicators on the coasts, there are plenty of people who could use the support of their government. Democrats need to do the right thing.

New York Magazine- Eric Levitz: Voters Aren't Moving Left on Taxes. Democrats are Moving Toward Voters

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/wealth-tax-warren-polls-media-public-opinion-democrats.html

Northam Needs to Do the Right Thing Now - Even if He Did Not in 1984

2/4/2019

Virginia Governor Ralph Northam and his wife in a press briefing February 2, 2019. CNN

A photo of Virginia Governor Ralph Northam medical school yearbook turned up. The photo showed two figures, one in blackface and the other in hooded KKK outfit. Because the characters were on Northam’s yearbook page, the initial assumption was that (1) Northam was the figure in blackface, (2) Northam was the figure in the hooded KKK outfit, or (3) Northam had reason to put two classmates or strangers dressed in a way to demean and wield supremacy over blacks on his yearbook page.

Many commentators have noted that these images are visual ethnic slurs that mock blacks. But there is a deeper implicit meaning of placing these two figures together. They threaten blacks who do not play the role of a clown with death by terrorism from the KKK. Together these figures are a reminder and celebration of white supremacy.

After first saying he was sorry he had appeared in these photos as one of the figures in the yearbook, the next day Northam denied being one of the characters in the picture. At a press conference, he claimed he was not one of the figures and said that the photo was on his yearbook page by mistake. Northam also admitted that in the same year in which the yearbook was published, he blackened his face with shoe polish to win a dance contest in which he posed as Michael Jackson. Apparently trying to mitigate darkening his face, Northam said he only used a little bit of shoe polish because it was so difficult to remove. In effect, he admitted using shoe polish to darken his face at least one other time.

If there was any chance Northam governorship could survive, this press conference ended it. Northam’s credibility was gone, and with it, his effectiveness. When Northam first confronted the reality of these photos, he seemed to understand the impossibility of remaining governor. But after having slept on it, he claimed he would not resign. His hope seemed to be that his reputation as a good man, supported by many blacks, could save him. Northam has grown into a good man. But as his inability to recognize why those supremacist photos are disqualifying, he still has some growing to do.

Whatever issues he wanted to champion or whatever honors he wanted to achieve are no longer possible. He needs to resign. He should give a resignation speech with Justin Fairfax, his black lieutenant governor, behind him. He should say things are in good hands with Justin, shake hands with and embrace Justin, and then move on to the best life he can have. As a physician, although a flawed man who is working to be a better man, it seems like it could be a good and useful life.

In any event, his dreams as governor of Virginia are gone, gone with the wind. And frankly, I don’t give a damn.

The Washington Post- Schneider, Vozella, and Portnoy: Northam Meets with Senior Staff and Considers Options, Including Resignation

https://wapo.st/2Sq5dEI

Money-Money-Money

2/1/2019

Trends that will define significant themes in the 2020 election are already becoming apparent. The election of Donald Trump fueled Progressives by showing the power of the progressive issues on which he ran. These issues included, for example, affordable health care, draining the Washington swamp, fixing the unfair tax system, and ensuring an economy that worked for everyone. Trump lied about his willingness to carry out these ideas but nonetheless showed that voters wanted them fulfilled.

A large number of candidates competing for the Democratic nomination ensures that their discussion of progressive issues will raise their salience. Many of the Democratic candidates have already called for raising taxes on the incomes of the rich while Elizabeth Warren has even called for a tax on their accumulated wealth. These proposals have panicked the “centrist” Democrats and Republicans who might have voted for Democrats in 2018.

One former “centrist” Democrat, Howard Schultz, is threatening a run for the Presidency. The basis for his race seems to be splitting the Democratic Party if it nominates a candidate he considers too far left. And the Republican Party is already gearing up to paint the Democratic nominee as a leftist too dangerous to be entrusted with keys to the White House. Among the many other flaws of Republicans, they seem to lack a sense of irony.

Pundits using the midterms as a template for what to expect in 2020, although the political atmosphere may already have changed. In the midterms, some Republicans may have voted for some Democratic candidates as a buffer against Trump’s craziness. In 2020, some Democrats and Republicans may decide they do not want to risk a “captain of the ship” who may champion raising taxes on the rich.

The Washington Post: Matt Viser- Republicans Seize on Liberal Positions to Pain Democrats as Radical

https://wapo.st/2MJEg9t

The Washington Post - Michael Scherer: Budding Independent Howard Schultz Aims Most of His Ire at Democrats

https://wapo.st/2Rx3lFE

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