Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller’s investigation is unlikely to remove Donald Trump from the Presidency. Despite the intensity of Progressive voters the Republican House and Senate votes needed to remove Trump are unlikely to be there in either 2018 or 2020.
Democrats will probably win control of the House in 2018. The Democrats need 24 seats to gain control of the House. Since the end of World War II, the President’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections. The lower a President’s approval rating, the more seats his party is likely to lose. Trump’s approval rating is lower than any other U.S. President since the administration of Harry Truman. Further, nearly 40 Republican House members have announced their retirement so far. Republicans thus have the highest number of open seats since 1974. And open seats tend to be more vulnerable to Democratic take over than incumbent Republican seats.
Democrats will probably win control of the House in 2018. The Democrats need 24 seats to gain control of the House. Since the end of World War II, the President’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections. The lower a President’s approval rating, the more seats his party is likely to lose. Trump’s approval rating is lower than any other U.S. President since the administration of Harry Truman. Further, nearly 40 Republican House members have announced their retirement so far. Republicans thus have the highest number of open seats since 1974. And open seats tend to be more vulnerable to Democratic take over than incumbent Republican seats.
The only way to remove Trump and enablers from office is to vote them out.
Democrats showed their political intensity in 2017 and 2018 with Women’s Marches, the March for Science, the 2017 Equality March, and March for Our Lives in 2018 all show the Democrats’ political intensity. The election wins for Democrats in the Virginia governor’s election (Ralph Northam), the Alabama Senate race (Doug Jones), and Pennsylvania’s 18th district (Conor Lamb) concretely show the importance of voter intensity for winning elections. While the Democrats’ intensity could dissipate by November, Trump and the GOP’s continued anti-American behavior give us some assurance that will not happen.
Even if Democrats win the House in 2018, it is unlikely they will win the three Senate seats needed to control the Senate. Democrats have 26 Senate seats up for election compared to only 8 seats up for the Republicans. Ten of Democratic seats are in states that Trump won in 2016. Alternatively, the only Republican Senator up for re-election in a state that Trump lost is Dean Heller in Nevada. Jeff Flake of Arizona, which Trump won by 3.5 points, is retiring and offers a chance for Democrats to pick up a second seat. Similarly, Tennessee has an open Republican Senate seat with the retirement of Bob Corker. Tennessee, however, went for Trump by 26 points, making a Democratic win seem a weak possibility Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz, is up for re-election in Texas. Despite Trump’s rather thin 9 point victory over Hillary Clinton and Cruz’ declining popularity among many conservatives, Texas may still be too conservative for a Democrat to win.
If Democrats are able to win both the House and Senate, they may be able to impeach Trump. It is not a certainty because some Democrats from conservative House districts, like Conor Lamb, may be reluctant to vote against the biddings of their constituents. Assuming Democrats can muster the 218 votes (51 percent) needed for impeachment, then the 67 Senators (67 percent) must convict Trump of the “high crimes and misdemeanors” found by House to remove him. Democrats cannot convict Trump without Republican help. And there is no reason to believe that Republicans will discover their sense of duty. One can imagine Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell reminding his caucus, in his dreary and monotonous tone, that they will be held responsible for earlier enabling a President who had to be removed from office. In light of the ability of Republicans to twist facts and refuse to see truth if it is against their self-interest, then we should predict that Republicans will not hold Trump accountable.
Mueller is not our savior; he is a skilled prosecutor who is building cases against criminals. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is helping to turn the Republican Party into a disastrous and overwhelming mudslide. We cannot save ourselves by running from the swamp it creates. Instead, we must rely on the same flawed politics that brought us the mountain of mud. It will not yield a perfect recovery; the Democratic Party is surely not a perfect tool. But it is the only tool we have to dig ourselves out. The only way to remove Trump and enablers from office is to vote them out.
Even if Democrats win the House in 2018, it is unlikely they will win the three Senate seats needed to control the Senate. Democrats have 26 Senate seats up for election compared to only 8 seats up for the Republicans. Ten of Democratic seats are in states that Trump won in 2016. Alternatively, the only Republican Senator up for re-election in a state that Trump lost is Dean Heller in Nevada. Jeff Flake of Arizona, which Trump won by 3.5 points, is retiring and offers a chance for Democrats to pick up a second seat. Similarly, Tennessee has an open Republican Senate seat with the retirement of Bob Corker. Tennessee, however, went for Trump by 26 points, making a Democratic win seem a weak possibility Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz, is up for re-election in Texas. Despite Trump’s rather thin 9 point victory over Hillary Clinton and Cruz’ declining popularity among many conservatives, Texas may still be too conservative for a Democrat to win.
If Democrats are able to win both the House and Senate, they may be able to impeach Trump. It is not a certainty because some Democrats from conservative House districts, like Conor Lamb, may be reluctant to vote against the biddings of their constituents. Assuming Democrats can muster the 218 votes (51 percent) needed for impeachment, then the 67 Senators (67 percent) must convict Trump of the “high crimes and misdemeanors” found by House to remove him. Democrats cannot convict Trump without Republican help. And there is no reason to believe that Republicans will discover their sense of duty. One can imagine Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell reminding his caucus, in his dreary and monotonous tone, that they will be held responsible for earlier enabling a President who had to be removed from office. In light of the ability of Republicans to twist facts and refuse to see truth if it is against their self-interest, then we should predict that Republicans will not hold Trump accountable.
Mueller is not our savior; he is a skilled prosecutor who is building cases against criminals. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is helping to turn the Republican Party into a disastrous and overwhelming mudslide. We cannot save ourselves by running from the swamp it creates. Instead, we must rely on the same flawed politics that brought us the mountain of mud. It will not yield a perfect recovery; the Democratic Party is surely not a perfect tool. But it is the only tool we have to dig ourselves out. The only way to remove Trump and enablers from office is to vote them out.